2018年11月随笔

  1. Share-based compensation (options, etc)
    不消耗公司资金,但增加了流通股数量,降低公司EPS, 同时增大了股票下行压力(被奖励人套现)

  2. FCF (Free Cash Flow) Formula
    FCF = (Sales - OPEXP - DEPEXP)(1-tao) + DEPEXP - Delta WC - CAPEXP

  3. 宏观经济的研究框架
    以利率为出发点,通过把握整体信贷环境、银根的松紧程度、宏观信用和债务风险来评估当前所处的债务周期阶段;进一步引申出制造业和第三产业的投资以及扩张意愿。
    制造业和第三产业的投资及扩张意愿会直接影响中产收入增长和消费意愿,从而引导下游终端企业的生产和投资计划,形成闭环。

  4. Marketable Securities: Intransic Value v.s. Market Price
    The intransic value of a stock often reveals when negotiated at a merger or acquisition.

  5. Buffet's long-term value investing is under the assumption that excellent business results by corporations will translate over the long term into correspondingly excellent market value and dividend results for owners, minority as well as majority. This assumption is very unlikely to be true for most public companies in China.

  6. Price Volatility can be represented by Coefficient of Variance, which avoids the maginitude effect when using std/variance as measurement. Price Volatility can be compared over an aggregated long-term period, or over the average of the separate daily cov result.

Moreover, the price volatility is shown by observing the daily percentage change of the quote.

Std/Variance or cov is designed to measure a statistical population which may or may not observed from a single entity. When the research objective is a single entity with periodically continueous value (hourly, daily, etc), percentage change is a more understandable measurement.

  1. Non-voting shares as the certificate of beneficial interest
    As opposed to controlling interest.

2018年10月随笔

The limitation of Market Valuation

Market valuation by stock price * number of shares is misleading, because not all shares can be sold on the same quoted market price at the same time. Once large volume of dumping emerged, the stock price is definitely going to drop significantly.

An estimation can be made by multiplying market value by a factor, say 0.7.

The Nature of Equity Investment

  1. Source of Income (dividend, earnings)
  2. Marketable Security

The underlying substance of knowledge

  1. Facts
  2. Cause-and-effect relationship among events
  3. Distribution of possible outcomes on certain event

The underlying utility of knowledge

  1. Prediction
  2. Analysis of the past, revealing what happened.

Economic Downturn Periods

  1. Financial Crisis of 2007 - 2008 (2008 Financial Crisis, lead to the Great Recession)

Strong Foreigh Capital Inflow can help keep long-term interest rate low despect the Fed kept raising short-term rate.

The Inherent Inevitability of Crisis

If the danger of crisis was fully recognized by related party, it would never happen. Crisi usually happens when situation looks good, when the potential of crisis was not be foreseen by the authority. Therefore, crisis is very likely to happen even when authority claims everything will be fine (out of true heart or not).

Financial Crisis happens when Big Financial Giant cannot meet obligations (fulfill contracts). To meet these obligations, large amount of financial assets have to be sold, which drives down asset price.

When yield curve flatten, holding short-term assets becomes attractive since their yield increases.

The contagious of 2008 financial crisis

European banks invested in the U.S. subprime mortage market sufferred great losses. The tightening money market in U.S. crippled some European banks who rely on the U.S. financial market to raise short-term fund and maintain liquidity.

Structured Investment Vehicle

Borrowing short-term to invest long-term, by entities established off-shore to avoid regulations

Mezzanine Capital

Any subordinate debt or preferred equity instructment that represents a claim on a company's assets which is senior only to that of the common shares.

The U.S government saved U.S. auto industry by providing loans from government fund

The ultimate Loss

Government assistantace and the act of bail out will ultimately impose the loss on taxpayers, non the less the currency depreciation. Those suffers also includes foreign U.S. currency and bond holers

2009年3月18日,在美国政府宣布将加大量化宽松操作时,金价为何大涨

货币贬值 --> 金价大涨(保值)
预期驱动交易

货币走弱的两个表现

  1. 国内: 通货膨胀
  2. 国外: 大宗商品价格上涨(黄金、石油等),对一揽子货币贬值

做空的风格选择

  1. 短线为主,适合做空的股票往往波动性较大,大幅下跌后经常回撤上涨,短线宜以波动性即得收益为主。预期下跌后平仓等待股票回撤。待有合适回撤后继续做空。波段性操作。

The Underlying Cause of 2008-2011 financial crisis

  1. Tremendous misestimation and Ignorance of the Risk related to mortage related financial assets.
  2. Leveraged Investing

Classic Sign of Buble

New buyers flooded the market, many of them have no prior experience.

The Substance of Financial Crisis

The deveraging process is the process of contracting balance sheet for every participants in the credit market, as large scale credit defaults occuried.

As the overall capital in the economy stay unchanged, the real impack to the market is investor faith and the failure of systematically important institutions.

The collapse of faith is usually followed by a strain of liquidity, which spread the crisis to non-financial sectors.

Recording

It is organization, not medium of storage, that really matters in periodical recording of information.

Bonus Army Conflict

1932年7月28日,美国华盛顿武装驱离抗议人群,出动坦克

2018年9月随笔

  1. 成交价总是order book里的卖1或买1价格
  2. 只考虑限价单,卖1大于买1则无成交
  3. 卖1是买入证券时的可能最低价,买1是卖出证券时的可能最高价

2018年8月随笔

趋势下的个股走势自我强化

AAPL突破一万亿美元市值之前,媒体的大肆宣传,客观上刺激了AAPL的买入需求,强化了市场的看涨预期

巴菲特对投资安全边际的重视

信条随记

江泽民:一个人的命运啊,当然要靠自我奋斗,但是也要考虑到历史的行程
自己:金融生意的本质在于创造交易机会,或者寻找交易机会
雷洛:人一辈子这么辛苦,为了什么?为了吃饭

2018年3月随笔

  1. 艰苦创业的阶段,此时创始团队是整个公司的前进动力,创始人是拉车的人

  2. ADR (American Depository Receipts)
    ADR由美国存托银行保管,每一份存托凭证代表了一股、多股或几分之一股在运营主体在美国之外的公司。美国存托凭证的所有者有权索取ADR所代表公司的股票。

  3. ADS (American Depository Share)
    ADS是美国存托股份,是ADR所代表的公司股份。

  4. 在美国上市的外国公司不需要提交季度财务报告

  5. PE/PB/PS

    Price/Earnings
    Price/Book
    Price/Sales
    三种不同的估值方式,需要在考虑行业特征和企业业务特点后酌情选用

  6. Form 20-F Annual Report
    Form F-1 Registration Prospectus

值得注意的是,美国多层次的场外交易市场为退市机制提供了后续通道。美国上市公司从一个市场退市后,除了进入破产程序的公司,大多数公司可以退到场外交易市场证券市场上挂牌。该OTC市场主要由OTCBB(店头报价公告栏市场)和PINK SHEETS(粉红单市场)两部分市场组成。二者一个较大的区别在于挂牌标准不一,退市公司可以根据自己的意愿选择到哪一个市场去挂牌。

2018年2月随笔

  1. 金融交易的本质是Asset Re-allocation
  2. 判断新事物可跟进性的标准是是否有可能从中盈利
  3. 局势决定市场情绪,市场情绪决定价格走势
  4. 技术应用离变现的距离决定是否值得投入

Financial Market Modelling

Stock market is a game market in which asset re-allocation happens everytime. It is interesting that stock market functions both as a place of capital investment and financial arbitrage. Initial share offering (IPO) pumps money into the market. Stock trading is an exchange between corporation and the investors. Stock trading between investors does not affect the balance sheet of the corporation.

"Money inside the market" refers to the overal valuation of the stocks in the market. It is the circulation of currency in the market. The circulation of currency happens together with the circulation of stocks.

There are many historial patterns of the market both in long-term and short-term, paired with economy patterns.

Asset valuation is a subjective, opinion based process substantially affected by human bias. Investor irrelationality is the basis of stock market arbitrage.

The flucation of stock prices is directly caused by trading orders, which is caused by the following two factors (independent of each other, but may function jointly to determine the bid/ask price):
1. The news of the corporation (fundamentals of the company)
2. The bid/ask of other market participant (the movement of other players)

Stock market has two functions, asset valuation and medium of exchange.

Bid-ask Spread

Unmatched ask price (monetary unit in currency in exchange of stock) is always higher than bid price, the difference between ask price and bid price is the bid-ask spread.

Supposedly, the bid-ask matching system will execute a trade when the price of sell order is equal or lower than a buy order. The execution price will be the price of the sell order, as it satisfies the monetary requirement for such trade, meanwhile potentionally saves money for the buyer.

The executation price will always be the ask price.

Special Thoughts

how to deal with situations when team members are not qualified enough to do the job on schedule, is a problem faced by many mangers in technology field. It is not without budget to hire qualified developer, but not enough prospective canadaicates to interview with. The technology industry is experiencing dramatic shortage in skiled manpower.

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在大牛市背景下,做空交易的成功率显著降低,优质科技股的Intrinsic value保证的大跌的低可能性,牛市背景的看多情绪蔓延推高股价。另外,天然的通胀率也保证的股市市值的放大。

智力模型

fluid intelligence and crystallized intelligence

Order Book Matching Algorithm

Price-Time-Priority-Algorithm

Financial Investment

Algorithmic Trading / Automated Trading

随笔2017-8-30

国内的生产过剩严重的抑制了产品进口,中国出口大国的地位仍将长期保持不变,贸易逆差是长期出口大于进口的宏观经济结果。进口品种集中在高级食品,奶粉,首饰和奢侈品。

人工智能的格局不会只局限在技术领域,通过人工智能的培训,从业者在广告,销售,产品开发,市场和客服等领域同样会有巨大的发展。2003年,淘宝网成立,互联网大爆炸,马云不做技术,但马云精通互联网。同样,2017年,人工智能大爆炸,一个人可以不做AI技术,但必须要懂人工智能。