Tier 1: 2 days up 70%
Tier 2: 5 days up 90%
Intransic value only concerns about the earning power of the business, not including the growth potential. Value investing is about buying at a bargin price (compared to intransic value) with enough margin of safety. Invest in certainty.
Investing in growth potential is speculation and add more factors on top of the intransic value and current price level (bargin or not). More factors, higher uncertainties.
Evaluation of An entities'ability to pay back debt
- The ability to service debt interest
Net Cash Inflow/Interest Payment
2. The ability to service debt principle
Net Income/Debt Principle
Maintaining a long-term short position should be avoided.
- As long-term short position does not offer possible dividend income and foregone the trend of long-term economic growth, it should be avoided.
Distinction Between Inflationary Debt Cycle and Deflationary Debt Cycle
Inflationary debt cycle and deflationary debt cycle diffes in the deleveraging phase. Inflationary debt cycle refers to a debt cycle with a deleveraging process that is inflationary. Deflationary debt cycle likewise.
The discount rate of intransic valuation based on future free cash flow should be based on the risk-free interest rate.
About Short Term Prediction
In most times we do not predict the short-term movement of the price of a specific stock, because it is impossible to make it right in a realible way. Not mention the general market. However, in extreme cases, short-term price movement can be attempted, especially when the stock experience a tremendous price jump (50% upward overnight), or extremely good news was released to the market.
Aside of the conditions mentioned above, the return of speculation on short-term movement either by news or price fluctuation depends on the timing of buy/sale and calculated guess.
Short Term Investment
Short-term investment out of margin of safety
Short-term short sell = Event driven/News driven, it is very unlikely that the price will go upward in short term. = Margin of safety
Federal Funds Effective Rate
The weighted average of the negotiated federal fund lending rate among banks.
Federal Funds Target Rate
The target federal funds effective rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee.
- 需求资金用于投资PPE, 进口原材料，扩大再生产，实现利润增长
- 需求资金用于R&D, 市场推广，人员招聘，实现用户量的规模增长，抢占市场，扩大市场占有率，认可亏损换体量
Quandl (/ˈkwɑːndəl/) is a platform for financial, economic, and alternative data that serves investment professionals. Quandl sources data from over 500 publishers
Measurement of Dispersion
Coefficient of Variation
Stock Price High-Low Range COV
AAPL (2015-1-1 to 2017-1-1): 0.582
XNET (2015-1-1 to 2017-1-1): 0.803
The dataset of Two Sigma Competition is a h5 file. It can be read into a 1,710,756 rows x 111 columns pandas dataframe.
All datapoints are identified by two attributes combined: id + timestamp, both of which are not unique. Id is a financial security and timestamp indicates the time of quote (Y).
In the dataset there are 1424 different ids and 1813 different timestamps. In general, the data point is sampled in a fixed timestamp interval of 750.