My Investment Philosophy

Intransic Value

Intransic value only concerns about the earning power of the business, not including the growth potential. Value investing is about buying at a bargin price (compared to intransic value) with enough margin of safety. Invest in certainty.

Investing in growth potential is speculation and add more factors on top of the intransic value and current price level (bargin or not). More factors, higher uncertainties.

Evaluation of An entities'ability to pay back debt

  1. The ability to service debt interest

EBIT/Interest Payment
Net Cash Inflow/Interest Payment
2. The ability to service debt principle

Net Income/Debt Principle

Maintaining a long-term short position should be avoided.

  1. As long-term short position does not offer possible dividend income and foregone the trend of long-term economic growth, it should be avoided.

Distinction Between Inflationary Debt Cycle and Deflationary Debt Cycle

Inflationary debt cycle and deflationary debt cycle diffes in the deleveraging phase. Inflationary debt cycle refers to a debt cycle with a deleveraging process that is inflationary. Deflationary debt cycle likewise.

做空的理由

做空的理由是股票价格被严重高估(相对于intransic value),而不是股价即将下跌。

Intransic Value

The discount rate of intransic valuation based on future free cash flow should be based on the risk-free interest rate.

About Short Term Prediction

In most times we do not predict the short-term movement of the price of a specific stock, because it is impossible to make it right in a realible way. Not mention the general market. However, in extreme cases, short-term price movement can be attempted, especially when the stock experience a tremendous price jump (50% upward overnight), or extremely good news was released to the market.

Aside of the conditions mentioned above, the return of speculation on short-term movement either by news or price fluctuation depends on the timing of buy/sale and calculated guess.

Short Term Investment

  1. Short-term investment out of margin of safety
    Short-term short sell = Event driven/News driven, it is very unlikely that the price will go upward in short term. = Margin of safety

  2. 利用市场的价格波动性来获利,即择时反向操作,利用价格波动的必然性,无论涨跌,股票价格的上下波动本身是一个恒定不变的模式。 对优质股来说,价格不会剧烈波动,从而保证了利用波动本身获利的交易策略具有一定的风险可控性。

2018年8月随笔

趋势下的个股走势自我强化

AAPL突破一万亿美元市值之前,媒体的大肆宣传,客观上刺激了AAPL的买入需求,强化了市场的看涨预期

巴菲特对投资安全边际的重视

拼多多 – Research Memo

根据招股书,拼多多此次计划发行85,600,000份ADS,代表342,400,000份拼多多A类普通股。在IPO后,黄铮持有全部的拼多多B类普通股,拥有对公司事物约89%的投票权,占有绝对控制地位。

腾讯和红杉资本在IPO中被分别授予7,894,737和7,894,735份拼多多ADS。
招股书正文开头的致股东信似乎由中文翻译而成,信里介绍了拼多多的企业价值和愿景。

Money Supply and Interest Rate

Federal Funds Effective Rate

The weighted average of the negotiated federal fund lending rate among banks.

Federal Funds Target Rate

The target federal funds effective rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee.

GDP平减指数

名义GDP增长量与实质GDP增长量之商

民营企业和互联网企业的资金需求差异

民营企业

  1. 需求资金用于投资PPE, 进口原材料,扩大再生产,实现利润增长
  2. 以债务融资为主

互联网企业

  1. 需求资金用于R&D, 市场推广,人员招聘,实现用户量的规模增长,抢占市场,扩大市场占有率,认可亏损换体量
  2. 以股权融资为主

迅雷研究笔记

迅雷平台游戏业务的用户粘性

  1. 平均用户游戏活跃时长为1-6个月

迅雷现金流问题

从2013年到2016年,迅雷营收从1.18亿美元上升到1.56亿美元,与此同时,经营现金流和自由现金流均出现大幅下跌,分别从8千5百万美元和4千2百万美元下降到4千2百万美元和2百万美元。

2017年底,迅雷的账面现金仅为23万美元。正常么

Finance Research Resources

Financial Data

Quandl
Quandl (/ˈkwɑːndəl/) is a platform for financial, economic, and alternative data that serves investment professionals. Quandl sources data from over 500 publishers

Accounting Codification

FASB Codification
https://asc.fasb.org/viewpage

Two Sigma Competition

Dataset

The dataset of Two Sigma Competition is a h5 file. It can be read into a 1,710,756 rows x 111 columns pandas dataframe.

All datapoints are identified by two attributes combined: id + timestamp, both of which are not unique. Id is a financial security and timestamp indicates the time of quote (Y).

In the dataset there are 1424 different ids and 1813 different timestamps. In general, the data point is sampled in a fixed timestamp interval of 750.