CMGE Group

Corporate Overview

CMGE Group is a mobile game operator focusing on mobile game publishing and operation in mainland China. According to CMGE Group's HKEX IPO prospectus published in Aug 10th, 2019, 65.14% of the group's revenue are derived from IP-based games. CMGE Group emphasized in the prospectus it is a leading IP-based mobile game operator and publisher. However, CMGE Group's market share in overall mobile game market in terms of gross billings is 1.5%.

The general revenue recognition principle in as follows: CMGE Group recognize publishing revenue as the gross billings paid by game players net of the amount remitted to third-party game developers. The cost of sales includes the revenue shared with and the royalities paid to publishing channels and IP owenrs.

(Game industry has a potentional double counting problem as both game publisher and game developer may treat gross billings paid by game players as their revenue)

Role in Mobile Game Industry

  1. Game developer
  2. Game publisher: Manage the life-cycle of a mobile game operation from marketing, distribution, player recruiting, customer service and etc.
  3. Game distributor


The definition of "independent mobile game publisher" is unclear, yet it is a key concept in CMGE Group's self-portrait as a publisher with highest cumulative revenue generated from IP-based games. (defined as publishers that are not part of large conglomerates ?)


ARPPU = Average Revenue Per Paying User

Uncollectible Accounts Receivables (Credit Risk)

The group considers a financial asset in default when contractual payments are 90 days past due.

As of June 30, 2019, we had RMB54.3 million outstanding
trade receivables past due over more than 90 days (10% of the trade receivalbes in HK dollar amount are past due as of June 30, 2019).
As of December 31, 2018, 3.2% of the trade receivalbes in HK dollar amount are past due).
As of December 31, 2017, 0.9% of the trade receivalbes in HK dollar amount are past due).
Net cash flows from operating activities significantly weak compared to net income.

The trade receivalbe credit terms can be extended up tp 270 days for major distribution channels.

Leagal Disbute

One of the leading game in terms of revenue contribution involved in a claim of intellectual property right infringement against the company.


IP + Trade Receivalbe的资产持有公司




中手游从2017年到2019年手游流水和营收均实现了爆发式的增长,从2017年到2019年连续两年营收翻倍。与此同时,应收账款账期和违约率同步攀升,截止2019年6月30日,中手游有5千3百万人民币的应收账款违约,占全部应收账款的10%,2018年12月31日中手游违约应收账款占比仅为3.2%, 2017年12月31日中手游违约营收账款占比仅为0.9%。



Value U.S. Stocks

Resolute Forest Product

Producer Price Index by Commodity for Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Wood Pulp

Industry Overview Research Report

The Revenue Trend

The gross profit of RFP is heavily affected by the International price of wood and pulp materials.

Gravity Co.

Estimated 2019 Price/ FCF per share ratio is currently around 6.2, no substantial value found under current market price.
Reevaluation can be proceed if price drops substantially (20%+) or future FCF growth (20%+).
TODO: Intransic Value Estimation if Q3 net income sustained.


Expansion into Power Utility Infrastructure service through acquizition of unknown company.

During the second quarter of 2017, we expanded our pressure pumping, sand deliveries and last-mile trucking services into the SCOOP/STACK with the startup of our fourth pressure pumping fleet in June 2017. The startup of our fifth fleet in the mid-continent is scheduled for August 8, 2017, with our sixth fleet expected to commence operations in October 2017. In addition, on July 7, 2017, we acquired an energy service company from an unrelated third party seller for $2.3 million in cash and the assumption of $1.8 million in debt. This acquisition expands the infrastructure services of our other energy services division.

Form 10-Q

Majority of the revenue of the recent 3 quarters are from power utility service, which is a business acquired in the second quarter of 2017. The groups' previous major business oil mine drilling, related service business contribute in a minor percentage of the recent reporting period.


Proved Developed Reserve of Natural Gas for SANDRIDGE MISSISSIPPIAN TRUST I as of Dec 31, 2018 is 9,522.9 MMcf, with an estimated equilvent dividend distribution of USD 1.26 (from Jan 2018 to Trust Disolution)

Law Suit

On July 2, 2018, defendants filed a motion for partial judgment on the pleadings, arguing that all claims asserted on behalf of the members of the putative class are barred by the statute of limitations. On March 26, 2019, the Court denied the motion without prejudice should discovery reveal a basis for again challenging the timeliness of plaintiffs' claims.

"Denied without prejudice" means the claim can be reargued again.

Major Risk

Security Law Suit Regarding The IPO of The Trust. Potentional loss may arise out of the litigation.


Woori Financial Group Inc - 1 ADS = 3 Common Shares
Why the Korean Banking Industry is valued in low PE multiple of around 5.0 in general ?


Dxc technology
Why the valuation EV/EBITDA is 4.5 while ACN is 19.5.

Delphi Technologies







2019年10月3日,北京时间晚上10点美国非制造业PMI指数发布,创2016年以来新低。同一时刻,美国三大股指30秒内跌幅达0.8%, 同期贵金属价格上涨约1%。5分钟后,三大股指回升至跌-0.3%左右,显示出在算法交易根据非制造业PMI指数负面信号导致大面积抛盘后,其他非算法市场参与者接盘的现象。
由此表明,算法抛盘具有时间集中性,潜在时间点可预测性,以及回升的可预测性。 回升一般出现在抛盘后的价格企稳之后,算法交易量骤减。




DXC Technology

Computer Sciences Corporation分拆出政府IT服务业务后,与惠普企业IT服务部门(HPE)合并,组成了DXC Technology;


The Share Exchange Agreement

By the share exchange agreement, Renren Inc is entitled to receive addidional ordinary shares of Seven Star if the revenue and earning performance in 2019 meet certain predefined metrics.

Capital Structure

1. USD 10 Per Unit
180000000.5 Warrant
0.1 Right

  1. Before IPO
    4,312,500 Shares Outstanding
    USD 10,507 Net Asset

  2. After IPO
    6,124,044 Shares Outstanding
    USD 5,000,000 Net Asset

20,199,048 Shares (Possible Redemption)
USD 201,990,480


It is unknown why there still exist shares subject to redemption after the name of the firm is changed.

EDGAR Interactive Data Can Be Inaccurate
Year 2015, investment cash flow sector, the value of account "Acquisition of long-term investment" should be negative instead of positive.

Prelimary Quarter Report



1. 大盘有阶段性显著利好消息(如中美达成第一阶段贸易协议)
2. 坐庄标的有利好消息(盈利改善,新的销售合同等)
3. 坐庄标的成交量少,市值低

2019年10月15日 Market Observation



  1. 调研公司的历史增长率(市场份额、营收等)在现有及未来几年的市场环境下是否能够持续、或者加强
  2. 调研公司能否在现有及未来市场环境下打开实现市场份额增长
  3. 调研行业的总体份额增长空间




1. 坏账剥离: 四大行 -> AMC -> 财政部、人民银行 -> 税收、通胀
2. 资本金补充:
(1)四大行 <- 财政部、人民银行 (债券)
(2) 四大行 <- IPO

1. 坏账剥离: 四大行 -> AMC -> 人民银行全资投资机构 -> 税收、通胀
2. 转移至表外债务(contingient liability)

1. 资本金补充:永续债




受贸易战影响,亚马逊Cost of Sales增长快于Revenue, 结合其他费用增加,导致三季度主营业务毛利下降,净利也同步下降。



Quote by Vice Premier Zhu Rongji in 1995

who was then responsible for the fi nancial sector, had fi ercely criticized
the rampant speculation in the bond futures market “by a number of huge
interest groups, taking funds of the state, the local governments, and the
enterprises to seek profi ts.”




  1. IB的浮盈浮亏数值不准确
  2. 富途的Market Order生成的交易记录在行情历史图里不显示

The End of Ten Years Growth of U.S. Stock Market

Whether the ten years growth of U.S. stock market will end is not an issue, when will the trend reverse begin is an issue.
The trigger of the reverse process of U.S. stock market is very likely to be the large scale net outflow of passive index funds. The dropping of major market index such as SP500 would create panic among passive fund investors, pushing them to redeem their shares, which would start a self-reinforencing process of price fall in the general market.

The Russel 3000 index market cap is USD 30 trillion by Jan 18, 2018. (
The Russel 3000 index is 1,575.36 by Jan 18, 2018. It is 1755.31 by Sep 20, 2019.
The Russel 3000 index market cap as of Sep 20, 2019 is 33.4 trillion. The total market cap of U.S. public traded equity is about 34.1 trillion.

U.S. passive equity fund, $4.271 trillion. U.S. active equity fund, $4.246 trillion.

The U.S passive equity fund accounts for about 12.5% of U.S. market cap.

U.S. market structure
U.S. institutional investor share percentage

Market Participants

  1. Active Mutual Funds
  2. Passive Mutual Funds
  3. Pension Funds
  4. Insurance Companies
  5. Hedge Funds
  6. Managed Accounts
  7. Investment Companies
  8. Individual Investors (Shareholders)

Systematic Risk Brought By ETF

The Bigest Trend of the Ten Years Peroid

The bigest trend in 10 year in global economy is that the abnormal montary policy as well as the low/negative risk-free interest rate in Europe and U.S. has become the new norm. Europe central bank and Federal Reserve retart QE to provide liquidity. The abnormal monetary policy of structurally low interest rates is the new normal. Savings are punished and borrowings are encouraged. The authority in Europe and U.S. are execively relying on monetary policy to support economy growth. Interest rate is brought down to below zero in Europe and Japan, which changes the fundamentals in both the financial system and modern economy as the principle of time value of money is breached.

Real Estate Sector

Green Street Commercial Property Price Index
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
Commercial Real Estate Prices for United States



Bull Market Trigger

  1. Inflation meet 2% target, federal reserve starting tighting monetary policy
  2. Credit event

Banking Industry Deregulation

  1. "Volker Rule" is introduced in 2011 to prevent the situation when the central bank has to bailout failing banking institutions as they fail in financial crisis, by forbidding banking institutions from engaging in propritary trading of financial securities, thus lowering the overall industrial risk.
  2. The deregulation of banking industry, by revoking or weakening "Volker Rule", will allow commerial banks to pursue a higher return of asset by participate in prop trading. Commerial bank prop trading will introduce depositary fund into the financial market, which will raise the overall asset price.



  1. Hong Leong Asia Ltd (丰隆亚洲有限公司) --> China Yuchai International Limited (中国玉柴国际有限公司) --> Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd (广西玉柴机器股份有限公司)

Hong Leong Asia Ltd has a 41.75% share ownership of China Yuchai International Limited with controlling shareholder position through "special share". Hong Leong Asia Ltd indirectly hold 31.9% of the common shares of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd, but can exercise controlling power over corporate governence through Cooperation Agreement made in June 2007.
State-owned shares accounted for 36.73% of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd common shares.
In substance, the controlling power over Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd is shared by Hong Leong Asia Ltd and Guangxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The daily management and business development of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd is actually controlled by Guangxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission under minor supervision of Hong Leong Asia Ltd focusing on investment safeguard.

中国2020 - 2030年柴油机市场发展前景

2018年,玉柴的柴油机销售收入占总营收的79.9%, 其中99.1%的柴油机销往国内市场,销售地域的集中决定了玉柴未来10年的销售增长与中国第二产业的发展直接相关。在中国,柴油机主要用于卡车、吊车、起重机等重型车辆和机械设备,固定资产投资及工业生产增速直接决定了国内柴油机市场的需求总量,也决定了玉柴柴油机的销量增长空间。过去10年中国经济增速不断下行,高增速发展阶段已经过去,固定资产投资增速从2010年1月的30.5%,下降到2019年9月的5.4%。2015年以来,在政策引导下中国的产业结构调整逐步深化,基建和房地产投资对经济增长的贡献被逐渐弱化,经济增长方向从投资驱动向消费驱动转移,固定资产投资及工业生产增速同步下行。




玉柴股票的内在价值(Intransic Value)




IFRS 15, IFRS 9对财报的影响

IFRS 15, IFRS 9对玉柴的长期现金流没有实质影响,但由于IFRS 15的实施,玉柴重新发布了2016, 2017年的应收账款被重新计算,且2018年的应收账款以新标准进行统计,2018年玉柴营收账款的增长与IFRS 15的实施有一定的关系。










R&D Expense Ratio

The R&D Expense/Revenue for CYD is 2.75% for Year 2018, compared to 3.79% for Year 2018 in CMI (Cummins)


  1. 玉柴金股魔咒

  2. 玉柴集团划转自治区管理

  3. 玉柴国际金股生变惊动中美英新四国政府

  4. 玉柴机械背后闪现PE身影 借力谋划海外上市



  1. 攘外必先安内,通过发布新政策来托底金融市场




Cloudflare IPO

Sales and Marketing Expenses accounted for 53% of revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2019.
The high ratio of S&M Expenses verses Revenue indicating a strong tie between the current revenue growth and marketing/sales effort, which is not a good signal for a Internet company providing market leading service.

HongKong Index ETF

FLHK = FTSE Hong Kong RIC Capped Index
EWH = MSCI Hong Kong Index


(?) 阶段性规律? , 欧美主导金价, 黄金国际价格(美元)倾向于在欧美白天股市交易时段上升,在欧美夜晚(亚洲白天)时段回落,呈现明显的规律性。

Market Observation: 2019-9-5


The Correlation between Borkerage Stocks and The Market Index of A Share

Extremely high correlation in the past 3 years, the volatility of brokerage sector index is about 2X-3X of the market index. Move upward and downward synchronously.



Cyou Merger

Sep 9th, 2019. 16:00 beijing time, FuTu app pushed message regarding a 7% price jump in premark for Cyou.
16:07 Beijing time, market watch app pushed message about the announcement of acquisition proposal published on PRNewswire, price jumped further
to USD 8.3
16:37 Beijing time, price jumped to 8.5.7


The price jump stabled at 10% discount of M&A price announcement, which is the same case in HPJ

In the previous trade, Cyou was sold due to a fear of China-US trade war would not fade out in years. As dividend declaration and outside merger was not likely in the current time, I assume there would be no news that can act as the driving force of the valuation discovery of CYOU. Apparently I missed the possibility of internal merger, which would very likely happen when the stock price experienced serious recent drop.



FRAN Short Squeeze

Short of Float (Aug 15, 2019) is 42.33%. In Sep 10, 2019, FRAN published quarterly financial report showing an improvement on operation. The stock surged from USD 5 to USD 10.5 at marketing opening, a price surged of 100%, short positions are partially forced to cover, new short positions are opened, turnover ratio over 400%. Market closed in USD 10.3. In Sep 11, 2019, FRAN price surged from USD 11.43 to USD 18, closed end of market at USD 16.65. Another 63.3% surged, short borrowing rate increased from 8.63% to 10.22%, turnover rate over 200%. In Sep 12, 2019, FRAN price dropped from USD 15.98 to USD 14.06, short borrowing rate surged to 187.04%. In Sep 13, 2019, FRAN price surged from USD 14.37 to USD 18.39, another 27.9% surge, short borrowing rate surged to 273.16%, turnover ratio over 200%.

The price growth of FRAN is constantly driven by vertical price spikes that are very likely to be forced short cover. After three days, the price of FRAN increased by 260%. The short positions opened around USD 5 before quarterly report are most likely to be coverred. New short positions opened after quarterly report at around USD 9 might or might not survive the second phase price growth of around 100%.

The price hike of FRAN is a self-reinforcing process as buyers anticipated buy orders from investors who are happy with the improve on finanical report, an prevailing bias that can be exploited by following the trend, creating a short squeeze of FRAN together with other uncoordinated investors who expect the same process to occur, fullfilling the typical pattern of buying because there is a market consensus that price will go up. After the first wave of forced short covering happened, a large portion of short sellers are forced out, replaced by a new batch of short positions, then these positions are force to close due to continuous price hike, which pushed the price higher, with large turnover ratio over 200% at price high days.

The self-reinforcing process slow down when newly opened short positions are at a high price that are difficuly to go up further, at the same time short ratio declined. The process will start to reverse when he previous winners of the game are eager to cash out, expecting a reverse of the trend and a consensus is reached, then a self-correcting process begins.

Attentions Brought By M&A News Can Maintain the Valuation of A Stock Even After Cancelled

Sep 17, 2019. The non-binding offer of Sohu to Cyou was withdrawed, but the stock price of Cyou was maintained at the level when the offer was made.


The Company has liquidity and solvency issue in year 2020, but the risk might not be priced in.

Analyst Tracking

Macquarie Research - Industrial Team, ET AL



Unexpected Quarterly Report

below consensus

Yahoo Analyst Ratings and Estimate

The EPS is GAAP -EPS on Yahoo.


The Fair Value of ETF at Market Trading Hours

The fair value of ETF at market trading hours is determined by the supply and demand of the share, which are then determined by the in-time market price of the underlying securities and the expectation of the NAV of the ETF share on market close.










The Application of RS_T1 Strategy

RS_T1 strategy should only be used to generate secondary revenue by utilizing existing capital (1/5 of current capital).

TAL Impairment Loss on Long-term Investment

Fitting in the GAAP impairment loss on equity investment principle, the cost of equity investment (can be long-term investment or short-term investment) should be write down if a evaluated permantment loss is incurred.

The Case For Lucky Coffee


Lucky Coffee's current objective is high-speed large-scale expansion. A developing strategy that has been implemented since the pre-IPO days. The core of LK's business model is to leverage operating efficiency with revenue, creating value by pushing the limit of operating efficiency. 为了实现这一战略,瑞幸在准备阶段就从头搭建了整套完备的信息管理系统,涵盖了人员、供应链等连锁经营所必备的关键模块并实现了数据打通。

根据2015年底国土资源部(现自然资源部)发布的<<全国城镇土地利用数据汇总成果分析报告>>, 到2014年底全国城市面积为416.52万公顷,即4.165万平方公里。2009-2014年,全国城镇土地面积年均增长4.2%,考虑到增长速度总体呈逐渐放缓趋势,这里按2015-2020年年均增长3%来估算,2020年底全国城市面积预计为4.9732万平方公里。



The Increase of Operating Efficiency

The total of S&M and G&A expenses as a percentage of net revenue decreased significantly in 2019Q2. It is a good signal that LK is one step closer in metting the goal of running as a industry leader in operating efficiency.


如果考虑到瑞幸因为补贴而损失了大量营收,为了更有效的对比,将瑞幸第二季度的免费饮品和配送费用这两项营销成本加到当季营收中,即补全因营销补贴而损失的营收,则瑞幸2019年2季度的原材料占比和店铺运营成本占比为38.1%和30.4%, 分别领先星巴克指标3%和1%,没有体现出明显的优势,当然这只是一个极端假设,实际上停止补贴瑞幸的营收会大幅下滑。


值得注意的是瑞幸咖啡在2019年1季度的营业收入增长停滞,最有可能的原因是其在当季度显著的削减了销售和推广费用上。这一点可由2019年2季度营业收入和销售/推广费用的再次同步增长来佐证。2019年1季度瑞幸的营销费用为营业收入的35.1%, 同时营业收入环比增长仅为2.8%,对比历史增速来看几乎停滞, 几乎可以肯定30%-35%左右的营销费用是瑞幸咖啡现阶段保持营收增长的底线,营销费用极大的制约了瑞幸咖啡的盈利能力。



The Problem of Profitability

假设瑞幸咖啡2019年2季度的营收翻倍,同时成本保持不变,则2019年2季度瑞幸的营业利润率为16.9%, 同期星巴克的真实营业利润率为16.4%。瑞幸咖啡现阶段的运营是否产生了真实的经济价值,是一个疑问。



The Growth Rate

The key is the difference between the growth of net revenue and the growth of cost of materials and store rental and other operating costs.

The Decrease of Delivery Sales

Delivery orders as a percentage of total orders decreased from 61.7% in the first quarter of 2018 to 27.7% in the first quarter of 2019.






2019年8月15日,瑞幸咖啡的空头头寸为1499万股,占外部流通股2988万的50.16%, 2019年8月30日, 空头头寸上升到1738万股,占外部流通股的58.17%。空头头寸的上升表明市场对瑞幸咖啡的分歧较大,下个季度财报将成为瑞幸咖啡商业逻辑验证和股价走势的转折点。


VC Elaborating of LK's business logic and strategy

LK's 2019Q2 Report




  1. 电子烟 - A股
    2019年8月18日, RELX悦刻占据中国电子烟市场44%的市场份额,远超2到10名的总和

  2. 养老板块

  3. 基建板块
    --- 专项债支持基建,同时推出降准和LPR等货币政策降低利率,降低基建和其他投资的融资成本。

  4. 物业板块


  1. 特斯拉供应链概念
  1. 天风证券