Value U.S. Stocks

Resolute Forest Product

Producer Price Index by Commodity for Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Wood Pulp

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0911

Industry Overview Research Report

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/paper-forest-products-and-packaging/our-insights/pulp-paper-and-packaging-in-the-next-decade-transformational-change

The Revenue Trend

The gross profit of RFP is heavily affected by the International price of wood and pulp materials.

Gravity Co.

Estimated 2019 Price/ FCF per share ratio is currently around 6.2, no substantial value found under current market price.
Reevaluation can be proceed if price drops substantially (20%+) or future FCF growth (20%+).
TODO: Intransic Value Estimation if Q3 net income sustained.

TUSK

Expansion into Power Utility Infrastructure service through acquizition of unknown company.

During the second quarter of 2017, we expanded our pressure pumping, sand deliveries and last-mile trucking services into the SCOOP/STACK with the startup of our fourth pressure pumping fleet in June 2017. The startup of our fifth fleet in the mid-continent is scheduled for August 8, 2017, with our sixth fleet expected to commence operations in October 2017. In addition, on July 7, 2017, we acquired an energy service company from an unrelated third party seller for $2.3 million in cash and the assumption of $1.8 million in debt. This acquisition expands the infrastructure services of our other energy services division.

Form 10-Q

Majority of the revenue of the recent 3 quarters are from power utility service, which is a business acquired in the second quarter of 2017. The groups' previous major business oil mine drilling, related service business contribute in a minor percentage of the recent reporting period.

SANDRIDGE MISSISSIPPIAN TRUST I

Proved Developed Reserve of Natural Gas for SANDRIDGE MISSISSIPPIAN TRUST I as of Dec 31, 2018 is 9,522.9 MMcf, with an estimated equilvent dividend distribution of USD 1.26 (from Jan 2018 to Trust Disolution)

Law Suit

On July 2, 2018, defendants filed a motion for partial judgment on the pleadings, arguing that all claims asserted on behalf of the members of the putative class are barred by the statute of limitations. On March 26, 2019, the Court denied the motion without prejudice should discovery reveal a basis for again challenging the timeliness of plaintiffs' claims.

"Denied without prejudice" means the claim can be reargued again.

Major Risk

Security Law Suit Regarding The IPO of The Trust. Potentional loss may arise out of the litigation.

WF

Woori Financial Group Inc - 1 ADS = 3 Common Shares
Why the Korean Banking Industry is valued in low PE multiple of around 5.0 in general ?

DXC

Dxc technology
Why the valuation EV/EBITDA is 4.5 while ACN is 19.5.

2019年10月随笔

随笔

右侧交易

对比左侧交易,右侧交易在价值和趋势两种投资逻辑里都更容易控制风险,且操作信号更明显。

算法交易

2019年10月3日,北京时间晚上10点美国非制造业PMI指数发布,创2016年以来新低。同一时刻,美国三大股指30秒内跌幅达0.8%, 同期贵金属价格上涨约1%。5分钟后,三大股指回升至跌-0.3%左右,显示出在算法交易根据非制造业PMI指数负面信号导致大面积抛盘后,其他非算法市场参与者接盘的现象。
由此表明,算法抛盘具有时间集中性,潜在时间点可预测性,以及回升的可预测性。 回升一般出现在抛盘后的价格企稳之后,算法交易量骤减。

美股的风险偏好和美联储降低

美股大盘的风险偏好和美联储降息前景直接相关
中概股大盘和美股大盘呈强相关性,同时被美股机构投资者(大盘影响者)视为高风险资产

阿根廷上市银行普遍暴跌,显现出强烈的低估值特征

DXC Technology

Computer Sciences Corporation分拆出政府IT服务业务后,与惠普企业IT服务部门(HPE)合并,组成了DXC Technology;
2019年一,二季度公司营收大幅下降,股价下跌

开心汽车

The Share Exchange Agreement

By the share exchange agreement, Renren Inc is entitled to receive addidional ordinary shares of Seven Star if the revenue and earning performance in 2019 meet certain predefined metrics.

Capital Structure

Prospectus:
1. USD 10 Per Unit
18000000 Shares
180000000.5 Warrant
18000000
0.1 Right

  1. Before IPO
    4,312,500 Shares Outstanding
    USD 10,507 Net Asset

  2. After IPO
    6,124,044 Shares Outstanding
    USD 5,000,000 Net Asset

20,199,048 Shares (Possible Redemption)
USD 201,990,480

Questions

It is unknown why there still exist shares subject to redemption after the name of the firm is changed.

EDGAR Interactive Data Can Be Inaccurate

https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=1398453&accession_number=0001144204-16-091105&xbrl_type=v#
Year 2015, investment cash flow sector, the value of account "Acquisition of long-term investment" should be negative instead of positive.

Prelimary Quarter Report

多以拉升股价,市值管理为目的

中概股投机/坐庄

庄家资金入场前特征:
1. 大盘有阶段性显著利好消息(如中美达成第一阶段贸易协议)
2. 坐庄标的有利好消息(盈利改善,新的销售合同等)
3. 坐庄标的成交量少,市值低

2019年10月15日 Market Observation

下午4点左右,中国外交部发言人确认中美达成第一阶段协议。下午5点开始,标普500股指期货拉升0.5%左右。开盘前强生集团等标普成分股传来三季度盈利超预期消息,对冲了前几日市场对美股三季度盈利的悲观预期。开盘后美股指数开始上涨,中概股普遍上涨,开盘一小时后,开始有多个小盘中概股被热炒,普遍涨幅在50%以上。美股风险偏好上升,中概股炒作资金借势入场。

成长股的研究框架

  1. 调研公司的历史增长率(市场份额、营收等)在现有及未来几年的市场环境下是否能够持续、或者加强
  2. 调研公司能否在现有及未来市场环境下打开实现市场份额增长
  3. 调研行业的总体份额增长空间

市场总是不理性的

总是处于过度悲观或者过度乐观的状态

中国国有银行体系的坏账剥离和资产重组

1990年代
1. 坏账剥离: 四大行 -> AMC -> 财政部、人民银行 -> 税收、通胀
2. 资本金补充:
(1)四大行 <- 财政部、人民银行 (债券)
(2) 四大行 <- IPO

2000年代
1. 坏账剥离: 四大行 -> AMC -> 人民银行全资投资机构 -> 税收、通胀
2. 转移至表外债务(contingient liability)

2010-2019年
1. 资本金补充:永续债

印度房地产市场

2012年-2019年,孟买平均房价增幅在30%左右,增速一般

亚马逊三季度财报

受贸易战影响,亚马逊Cost of Sales增长快于Revenue, 结合其他费用增加,导致三季度主营业务毛利下降,净利也同步下降。

327万国期货

万国期货积累空投头寸,试图以期货市场的国债合约价格来影响现货市场的国债走势

Quote by Vice Premier Zhu Rongji in 1995

who was then responsible for the fi nancial sector, had fi ercely criticized
the rampant speculation in the bond futures market “by a number of huge
interest groups, taking funds of the state, the local governments, and the
enterprises to seek profi ts.”

日内阶段性横盘小幅抖动

是买盘动能不足的表现,经常是股价即将短期下行的表现。

交易软件的数据问题

  1. IB的浮盈浮亏数值不准确
  2. 富途的Market Order生成的交易记录在行情历史图里不显示

The End of Ten Years Growth of U.S. Stock Market

Whether the ten years growth of U.S. stock market will end is not an issue, when will the trend reverse begin is an issue.
The trigger of the reverse process of U.S. stock market is very likely to be the large scale net outflow of passive index funds. The dropping of major market index such as SP500 would create panic among passive fund investors, pushing them to redeem their shares, which would start a self-reinforencing process of price fall in the general market.

The Russel 3000 index market cap is USD 30 trillion by Jan 18, 2018. (https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-alphabet-stock-because-googles-cloud-is-gaining-momentum-51569078000)
The Russel 3000 index is 1,575.36 by Jan 18, 2018. It is 1755.31 by Sep 20, 2019.
The Russel 3000 index market cap as of Sep 20, 2019 is 33.4 trillion. The total market cap of U.S. public traded equity is about 34.1 trillion.

U.S. passive equity fund, $4.271 trillion. U.S. active equity fund, $4.246 trillion.
http://money.com/money/5654835/index-funds-assets-top-active/

The U.S passive equity fund accounts for about 12.5% of U.S. market cap.

U.S. market structure
https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/us-equity-market-structure.html
U.S. institutional investor share percentage
https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2013-spch041913laahtm
http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~keim/research/ChangingInstitutionPreferences_21Aug2012.pdf

Market Participants

  1. Active Mutual Funds
  2. Passive Mutual Funds
  3. Pension Funds
  4. Insurance Companies
  5. Hedge Funds
  6. Managed Accounts
  7. Investment Companies
  8. Individual Investors (Shareholders)

Systematic Risk Brought By ETF

https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/asc/esrb.asc190617_9_canetfscontributesystemicrisk~983ea11870.en.pdf

The Bigest Trend of the Ten Years Peroid

The bigest trend in 10 year in global economy is that the abnormal montary policy as well as the low/negative risk-free interest rate in Europe and U.S. has become the new norm. Europe central bank and Federal Reserve retart QE to provide liquidity. The abnormal monetary policy of structurally low interest rates is the new normal. Savings are punished and borrowings are encouraged. The authority in Europe and U.S. are execively relying on monetary policy to support economy growth. Interest rate is brought down to below zero in Europe and Japan, which changes the fundamentals in both the financial system and modern economy as the principle of time value of money is breached.

Real Estate Sector

Green Street Commercial Property Price Index
https://www.greenstreetadvisors.com/insights/CPPI
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
Commercial Real Estate Prices for United States
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMREPUSQ159N

经济增长与货币政策

在现代以纸币为基础的经济金融体系下,实现经济增长是驱动央行货币政策调整的源动力。经济体系对央行货币政策已经形成路径依赖,货币政策对生产力发展的边际促进作用逐渐弱化。
社会财富管理体系下,同业竞争和佣金收入结构决定了机构投资不可避免的继续涌入股票和债务市场,推动了各类资产价格的抬升,对货币流动性产生挤压作用,同时降低了资产的边际投资收益。

玉柴国际

公司控股结构

  1. Hong Leong Asia Ltd (丰隆亚洲有限公司) --> China Yuchai International Limited (中国玉柴国际有限公司) --> Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd (广西玉柴机器股份有限公司)

Hong Leong Asia Ltd has a 41.75% share ownership of China Yuchai International Limited with controlling shareholder position through "special share". Hong Leong Asia Ltd indirectly hold 31.9% of the common shares of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd, but can exercise controlling power over corporate governence through Cooperation Agreement made in June 2007.
State-owned shares accounted for 36.73% of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd common shares.
In substance, the controlling power over Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd is shared by Hong Leong Asia Ltd and Guangxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The daily management and business development of Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Co., Ltd is actually controlled by Guangxi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission under minor supervision of Hong Leong Asia Ltd focusing on investment safeguard.

中国2020 - 2030年柴油机市场发展前景

2018年,玉柴的柴油机销售收入占总营收的79.9%, 其中99.1%的柴油机销往国内市场,销售地域的集中决定了玉柴未来10年的销售增长与中国第二产业的发展直接相关。在中国,柴油机主要用于卡车、吊车、起重机等重型车辆和机械设备,固定资产投资及工业生产增速直接决定了国内柴油机市场的需求总量,也决定了玉柴柴油机的销量增长空间。过去10年中国经济增速不断下行,高增速发展阶段已经过去,固定资产投资增速从2010年1月的30.5%,下降到2019年9月的5.4%。2015年以来,在政策引导下中国的产业结构调整逐步深化,基建和房地产投资对经济增长的贡献被逐渐弱化,经济增长方向从投资驱动向消费驱动转移,固定资产投资及工业生产增速同步下行。

受制于固定投资及工业生产的低增速,柴油机市场未来10年的增长空间有限,行业竞争逐步从增量竞争转向存量竞争,行业集中度有望提高。

玉柴的营收结构调整

从2013年到2018年,玉柴的轻型柴油机销量和销售收入占比逐渐下降,中型、重型柴油机销量和销售收入占比逐渐上升,另外服务和其他产品销售收入占比明显上升,在2016年已经超过了轻型柴油机销售收入,成为了第三大销售收入来源。中型、重型柴油机和服务销售收入占比升高表明了最近6年玉柴的营收结构得到了优化。中型柴油机销售单价略降,轻型和重型柴油机销售单价的提高,显示出玉柴整体产品档次的提升。

玉柴股票的内在价值(Intransic Value)

以每股自由现金流来计算,玉柴2018年每股自由现金流约为0.94美元,股价/每股自由现金流比率为7%,即每年每股的自由现金流入为买入成本的7%,2018年的自由现金流显著低于往年均值,其直接原因是2018年玉柴的应收账款周转率大幅降低,同时应付账款同比显著减少,公司的销售回款速度下降,偿付供应商速度提高,导致当期现金流入显著降低。深层次的原因是2018年“去杠杆”政策导致的实体经济流动性短缺现象,信贷增速下滑导致的实体经济账期普遍延长现象。随着2019年把降低实体经济融资成本作为明确的政策目标,实体经济流动性短缺的现象有所缓解,玉柴2019年1,2季度的应收账款先增后降,应付账款连续2季度增加,玉柴2018年的销售回款问题有一定的缓解。

玉柴的未来商业环境

随着天然气卡车、公共汽车的推广和柴油机轿车的减少,玉柴和其他柴油机厂商一样,面临着严峻的转型压力。受限于纯电卡车在里程数、续航上的缺陷,短期内柴油发动机在重型卡车等传统工业车辆中的地位仍不可替代,在轿车领域和公共汽车领域、柴油机市场的萎缩不可逆转。玉柴产能和营收结构向中型、重型柴油机倾斜,同时发展天然气发动机,有利于其适应新能源时代的动力市场中保持市场份额和竞争力。

IFRS 15, IFRS 9对财报的影响

IFRS 15, IFRS 9对玉柴的长期现金流没有实质影响,但由于IFRS 15的实施,玉柴重新发布了2016, 2017年的应收账款被重新计算,且2018年的应收账款以新标准进行统计,2018年玉柴营收账款的增长与IFRS 15的实施有一定的关系。

虽然2018年度应收账款增加了3亿人民币,但总体应收账款周转率与2017年度相比近仅下降了4.5%,对比过去3年应收账款周转率均值提高了7.2%,应收账款增长给自由现金流带来的负面影响不会长期持续。

玉柴的国资背景对估值的影响

玉柴的实际控制人是由广西省国资委控制,国有股权的流通性缺失给公司的整体估值带来了一定的影响,但由于玉柴国际的国内实体广西玉柴机器股份有限公司是玉柴集团的重要现金流来源,加上持有特殊股份的大股东新加坡丰隆亚洲有限公司对玉柴机器股份的监管,玉柴机器股份和玉柴国际的年度常规分红应该能够得到长期保障。

2019年3季度的玉柴销量

从网络公开信息中得到来自于中国内燃机工业销售月报的数据,玉柴在2019年7,8,9月合计销售多缸柴油机10.04万台,对于2018年3季度内燃机销售总量7.1万台,同比增长41%以上。环比大概率持平(2019年2季度110,059台内燃机销量)

玉柴的自由现金流

玉柴国际2017,2018,2019年的自由现金流分别为2.6亿,11.1亿和19.2亿人民币,如果玉柴国际未来10年的年均自由现金流仅为最近3年均值的70%,即7.7亿人民币,按2%年折现率计算,玉柴国际未来10年的自由现金流折现总计为71.4亿人民币(约10.1亿美元)。
玉柴2019年11月5日的市值为6.03亿美元,仅为玉柴自由现金流折现的59.5%。

玉柴国际的负债情况

债务杠杆很低,总负债率为47.6,流动负债率为57.9%,且66.9%的债务为应付贸易帐款,总体债务情况良好。

R&D Expense Ratio

The R&D Expense/Revenue for CYD is 2.75% for Year 2018, compared to 3.79% for Year 2018 in CMI (Cummins)

Reference

  1. 玉柴金股魔咒
    http://cache.baiducontent.com/c?m=9d78d513d9d437ae4f9997697d16c0121a4381132ba7a0020ba7843997732f44506793ac57290775d8d20c6216d93f4bea812102411454b58cc9f85dadb08559249c60742e13dc0754910eaeb85b38917ecd0ffeaf6ea6e1ac6184aea582820b44ca2454269db1960a5e499f78f76036e5f69d1e440f12b8ee3265b5077223882337ec01a6be&p=c66fda16d9c104ff57ec95217f5f&newp=9e7bd7018d904ead08e2957f4e6492695803ed6938d7c44324b9d71fd325001c1b69e7be26241402d3c57e6204ac4e59edf13d78301766dada9fca458ae7c4&user=baidu&fm=sc&query=%D3%F1%B2%F1%BB%FA%C6%F7%B9%C9%B7%DD+%BD%F0%B9%C9&qid=d6a8ed56004c1d54&p1=1

  2. 玉柴集团划转自治区管理
    http://www.gxylnews.com/html/news/2018/07/162773.html

  3. 玉柴国际金股生变惊动中美英新四国政府
    http://money.163.com/editor/030707/030707_149462.html

  4. 玉柴机械背后闪现PE身影 借力谋划海外上市
    http://www.ipo.hk/info/69/344057.html

2019年9月随笔

贸易战下国内的市场政策目标

  1. 攘外必先安内,通过发布新政策来托底金融市场

新政策引导预期,短期内给市场注入信心,中长期通过改革方案的推出和落实改善二级市场运行质量,为二级市场(A股)的短期维稳和中长期上行提供政策支撑

市场资金流向上,通过对地产的打压,保持国内和国际资金流向持续向股票一级和二级市场和非地产融资板块倾斜

货币面上,通过新的贷款利率报价机制的推出来引导贷款利率下行,改善私营企业的融资环境,支持实体经济投资

Cloudflare IPO

Sales and Marketing Expenses accounted for 53% of revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2019.
The high ratio of S&M Expenses verses Revenue indicating a strong tie between the current revenue growth and marketing/sales effort, which is not a good signal for a Internet company providing market leading service.

HongKong Index ETF

FLHK = FTSE Hong Kong RIC Capped Index
EWH = MSCI Hong Kong Index

黄金国际市场的昼夜波动

(?) 阶段性规律? , 欧美主导金价, 黄金国际价格(美元)倾向于在欧美白天股市交易时段上升,在欧美夜晚(亚洲白天)时段回落,呈现明显的规律性。

Market Observation: 2019-9-5

随着贸易战的短暂缓和(中美定于10月在美国举行第13轮会谈),市场情绪得到舒缓,市场重心从避险资产转向风险资产,推动中美两地股市上涨。

The Correlation between Borkerage Stocks and The Market Index of A Share

Extremely high correlation in the past 3 years, the volatility of brokerage sector index is about 2X-3X of the market index. Move upward and downward synchronously.

大陆官方对香港游行的回应

大陆官方应该清楚香港游行的主要推动力量是香港本土中下阶层的不满而不是香港以外势力的介入,但为了降低自身在事件引爆中的深层次责任,降低民主诉求的正当性,官方依然声称香港游行背后有国外势力的介入。

Cyou Merger

Sep 9th, 2019. 16:00 beijing time, FuTu app pushed message regarding a 7% price jump in premark for Cyou.
16:07 Beijing time, market watch app pushed message about the announcement of acquisition proposal published on PRNewswire, price jumped further
to USD 8.3
16:37 Beijing time, price jumped to 8.5.7

2019年5月22日张朝阳向畅游提出过初步非约束性要约,但最后没有成功交易。
https://www.tmtpost.com/2615019.html

The price jump stabled at 10% discount of M&A price announcement, which is the same case in HPJ

In the previous trade, Cyou was sold due to a fear of China-US trade war would not fade out in years. As dividend declaration and outside merger was not likely in the current time, I assume there would be no news that can act as the driving force of the valuation discovery of CYOU. Apparently I missed the possibility of internal merger, which would very likely happen when the stock price experienced serious recent drop.

中美利差

降低降准推动利率债上涨,中美利差(算上汇率对冲成本)有利于外资单项流入

FRAN Short Squeeze

Short of Float (Aug 15, 2019) is 42.33%. In Sep 10, 2019, FRAN published quarterly financial report showing an improvement on operation. The stock surged from USD 5 to USD 10.5 at marketing opening, a price surged of 100%, short positions are partially forced to cover, new short positions are opened, turnover ratio over 400%. Market closed in USD 10.3. In Sep 11, 2019, FRAN price surged from USD 11.43 to USD 18, closed end of market at USD 16.65. Another 63.3% surged, short borrowing rate increased from 8.63% to 10.22%, turnover rate over 200%. In Sep 12, 2019, FRAN price dropped from USD 15.98 to USD 14.06, short borrowing rate surged to 187.04%. In Sep 13, 2019, FRAN price surged from USD 14.37 to USD 18.39, another 27.9% surge, short borrowing rate surged to 273.16%, turnover ratio over 200%.

The price growth of FRAN is constantly driven by vertical price spikes that are very likely to be forced short cover. After three days, the price of FRAN increased by 260%. The short positions opened around USD 5 before quarterly report are most likely to be coverred. New short positions opened after quarterly report at around USD 9 might or might not survive the second phase price growth of around 100%.

The price hike of FRAN is a self-reinforcing process as buyers anticipated buy orders from investors who are happy with the improve on finanical report, an prevailing bias that can be exploited by following the trend, creating a short squeeze of FRAN together with other uncoordinated investors who expect the same process to occur, fullfilling the typical pattern of buying because there is a market consensus that price will go up. After the first wave of forced short covering happened, a large portion of short sellers are forced out, replaced by a new batch of short positions, then these positions are force to close due to continuous price hike, which pushed the price higher, with large turnover ratio over 200% at price high days.

The self-reinforcing process slow down when newly opened short positions are at a high price that are difficuly to go up further, at the same time short ratio declined. The process will start to reverse when he previous winners of the game are eager to cash out, expecting a reverse of the trend and a consensus is reached, then a self-correcting process begins.

Attentions Brought By M&A News Can Maintain the Valuation of A Stock Even After Cancelled

Sep 17, 2019. The non-binding offer of Sohu to Cyou was withdrawed, but the stock price of Cyou was maintained at the level when the offer was made.

HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES

The Company has liquidity and solvency issue in year 2020, but the risk might not be priced in.

Analyst Tracking

Macquarie Research - Industrial Team, ET AL

关于诚实

诚实不代表透明,选择性隐瞒是绝大多数有优良品质社会人的共性

Unexpected Quarterly Report

below consensus

Yahoo Analyst Ratings and Estimate

The EPS is GAAP -EPS on Yahoo.

基于片面了解的"直觉"都是错觉

The Fair Value of ETF at Market Trading Hours

The fair value of ETF at market trading hours is determined by the supply and demand of the share, which are then determined by the in-time market price of the underlying securities and the expectation of the NAV of the ETF share on market close.

市场情绪已经形成共识的中概股在利好或利空财报发布后会形成单向拉升或下跌

每一次财报的发布,都是对已经形成的市场悲观共识的进一步验证,导致股价进一步下跌。这种市场情绪共识的加强,并不基于深度的财务分析和市场前景分析,而主要基于投资情绪的深化,和由财报信息披露触发的投资情绪向交易行为的转化(抛售或抢筹)

中概股财报发布后的股价变化,主要取决于财报对市场情绪的影响,且与财报发布前的分析师营收和EPS预估没有绝对的相关性(表明大部分中概股财报前股价走势受分析师预期影响有限)

在媒体和投资者中关注度越高的企业,这种强化现象越明显。每一次财报发布都会引发媒体和投资社区新的一轮讨论,重新成为热点。

Cloudflare

在独立的CDN供应商里,Cloudflare似乎缺乏同体量的行业竞争对手,可以和斗鱼的IPO后走势形成对比

板块和指数的普跌是市场回调的重要信号,可以作为做多策略实施过程中短期止盈和控制回撤(规避回调)的依据,用来尝试增加做多策略收益;

已经浮亏的做多策略无需根据市场回调止损,避免永久性资本损失。

上证50指数金融股过半

The Application of RS_T1 Strategy

RS_T1 strategy should only be used to generate secondary revenue by utilizing existing capital (1/5 of current capital).

TAL Impairment Loss on Long-term Investment

Fitting in the GAAP impairment loss on equity investment principle, the cost of equity investment (can be long-term investment or short-term investment) should be write down if a evaluated permantment loss is incurred.

The Case For Lucky Coffee

THE CONCEPT

Lucky Coffee's current objective is high-speed large-scale expansion. A developing strategy that has been implemented since the pre-IPO days. The core of LK's business model is to leverage operating efficiency with revenue, creating value by pushing the limit of operating efficiency. 为了实现这一战略,瑞幸在准备阶段就从头搭建了整套完备的信息管理系统,涵盖了人员、供应链等连锁经营所必备的关键模块并实现了数据打通。

根据2015年底国土资源部(现自然资源部)发布的<<全国城镇土地利用数据汇总成果分析报告>>, 到2014年底全国城市面积为416.52万公顷,即4.165万平方公里。2009-2014年,全国城镇土地面积年均增长4.2%,考虑到增长速度总体呈逐渐放缓趋势,这里按2015-2020年年均增长3%来估算,2020年底全国城市面积预计为4.9732万平方公里。

瑞幸在2019年5月29日在瑞幸咖啡全球合作伙伴大会宣布了到2020年底全国开1万家店的计划,按照之前估计的2020年底全国城镇面积来计算,到2020年底瑞幸在全国平均4.9732平方公里就有1家店。

对咖啡和零售饮料业的颠覆,现阶段主要体现在下单和支付形态上的变化,以及大面积的补贴上。运营效率上的改进还没有在营业成本上体现出来。

The Increase of Operating Efficiency

The total of S&M and G&A expenses as a percentage of net revenue decreased significantly in 2019Q2. It is a good signal that LK is one step closer in metting the goal of running as a industry leader in operating efficiency.

从2018年1季度到2019年2季度,瑞幸咖啡的原材料成本,房租和运营成本,销售和推广费用以及管理费用在营业收入中的占比逐年下降,表明瑞幸咖啡通过扩大经营规模来提高整体运营效率的战略在执行上是有效的。然而,现阶段瑞幸咖啡在原材料成本占比和店铺运营成本占比两项指标上仍距行业领先品牌有一定距离。2019年2季度星巴克的原材料成本占比和店铺运营成本占营业收入比例为分别为41.2%和29.6%,对比2019年2季度瑞幸这两项关键运营数据分别为51.2%和40.9%。

如果考虑到瑞幸因为补贴而损失了大量营收,为了更有效的对比,将瑞幸第二季度的免费饮品和配送费用这两项营销成本加到当季营收中,即补全因营销补贴而损失的营收,则瑞幸2019年2季度的原材料占比和店铺运营成本占比为38.1%和30.4%, 分别领先星巴克指标3%和1%,没有体现出明显的优势,当然这只是一个极端假设,实际上停止补贴瑞幸的营收会大幅下滑。

瑞幸所追求的通过大数据和全流程IT化来提升运营效率的战略,在现阶段并没有取得成本上的实际竞争优势。

值得注意的是瑞幸咖啡在2019年1季度的营业收入增长停滞,最有可能的原因是其在当季度显著的削减了销售和推广费用上。这一点可由2019年2季度营业收入和销售/推广费用的再次同步增长来佐证。2019年1季度瑞幸的营销费用为营业收入的35.1%, 同时营业收入环比增长仅为2.8%,对比历史增速来看几乎停滞, 几乎可以肯定30%-35%左右的营销费用是瑞幸咖啡现阶段保持营收增长的底线,营销费用极大的制约了瑞幸咖啡的盈利能力。

一旦将营销费用削减至正常水平,瑞幸咖啡的营收将会减少。瑞幸2019年1季度季消费用户总数的32.5%都是新用户(430万),但季度消费用户总数环比增长仅为1.8%,该数据表明瑞幸1季度的存量用户流失严重,2019年1季度营销费用的下降和新用户增长的放缓同步出现(单季650万减少到430万),表明增量用户的获取和营销费用支出之间的强相关性。从以上数据来看,现阶段瑞幸的存量和增量用户中有相当一部分是由配送补贴、产品免单和广告这三种营销手段来支撑的,一旦营销力度大幅减弱,存量和增量用户可能会同步下降。

现阶段用户增长过于依赖销售和推广费用是瑞幸咖啡未来打开盈利空间的最大障碍,2019年2季度,瑞幸咖啡132%的营销费用增长只带来了90%的营业收入环比上升,由于规模的扩大,营销的边际效应递减现象已经出现,对比之前几个季度,瑞幸营销活动对营业收入增长的带动效应明显减弱。限于短期内瑞幸咖啡的增长还无法完全摆脱对营销推广活动的依赖,如何提高销售/推广费用对营业收入的转化率,已经成为瑞幸咖啡现阶段必须要解决的问题。

The Problem of Profitability

假设瑞幸咖啡2019年2季度的营收翻倍,同时成本保持不变,则2019年2季度瑞幸的营业利润率为16.9%, 同期星巴克的真实营业利润率为16.4%。瑞幸咖啡现阶段的运营是否产生了真实的经济价值,是一个疑问。

现金流问题

2019年上半年瑞幸的经营性现金流为净流出1亿4千万美元。截至2019年6月30日,瑞幸的账面现金等价物和短期投资总和为8亿8千万美元。瑞幸的现金储备支撑应该可以支撑未来3年的门店扩以及营销支出。

The Growth Rate

The key is the difference between the growth of net revenue and the growth of cost of materials and store rental and other operating costs.
猜测:由补贴驱动的高增长率

The Decrease of Delivery Sales

Delivery orders as a percentage of total orders decreased from 61.7% in the first quarter of 2018 to 27.7% in the first quarter of 2019.
外卖订单占比从2018年第一季度的61.7%降低到2019年第一季度的27.7%,在瑞幸的运营策略引导下,外卖订单减少,自取订单比例上升,配送费用/营业收入占比逐季下降。
(2019年1月到3月的配送费用/营业收入占比为19.8%对比2018年同期增的26.8%)

财报前后的股价变动

从瑞幸咖啡的招股书来看,第二季度的亏损扩大是不可避免的。

前瞻

瑞幸咖啡的成功关键在于能否实现不依赖营销费用的用户自然增长,能否不依赖补贴提高老用户留存度。
长期来看,瑞幸咖啡能否实现现有估值下的盈利预期存疑。由于现调饮品行业集中度小,商家分散,短期来看,瑞幸咖啡形成行业份额上的统治地位难度很大,用户增长的瓶颈效应也会逐渐显现。能否复制互联网行业的烧钱扩张模式,是一个未知数。

瑞幸咖啡的空头头寸

2019年8月15日,瑞幸咖啡的空头头寸为1499万股,占外部流通股2988万的50.16%, 2019年8月30日, 空头头寸上升到1738万股,占外部流通股的58.17%。空头头寸的上升表明市场对瑞幸咖啡的分歧较大,下个季度财报将成为瑞幸咖啡商业逻辑验证和股价走势的转折点。
鉴于2019年8月30日后瑞幸咖啡股价最大振幅不超过9%,空头头寸应该不会有大幅度的下滑

Reference

VC Elaborating of LK's business logic and strategy

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1634396225944704795&wfr=spider&for=pc

LK's 2019Q2 Report

http://investor.luckincoffee.com/news-releases/news-release-details/luckin-coffee-inc-announces-unaudited-second-quarter-2019

全国城镇土地利用数据汇总成果分析报告

http://data.mlr.gov.cn/sjfw/td_19262/201808/t20180802_2157598.html

钱治亚瑞幸咖啡2019全球合作伙伴大会暨全球咖啡产业发展论坛演讲实录

https://www.jianshu.com/p/5cd3120a0981

A股投研笔记

  1. 电子烟 - A股
    2019年8月18日, RELX悦刻占据中国电子烟市场44%的市场份额,远超2到10名的总和

  2. 养老板块
    2019年8月21日国常会
    http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2019-08/22/nw.D110000renmrb_20190822_3-01.htm

  3. 基建板块
    中国总理李克强周三主持召开的国务院常务会议要求,要及时运用普遍降准和定向降准等工具,加大对实体经济支持力度;并将根据项目建设需要,按规定提前下达明年部分地方政府专项债额度,确保明年初即可使用见效。[nL3S25W2BD]随后中国央行周五宣布全面降准及定向降准,将释放长期资金约9,000亿元人民币。
    --- 专项债支持基建,同时推出降准和LPR等货币政策降低利率,降低基建和其他投资的融资成本。

  4. 物业板块
    南都物业,中航善达