平安好医生

竞争对手

  1. 好大夫在线

战略布局及目标

目标宏远,场景广阔,为中国数亿人口提供一站式在线医疗平台,提升社会医疗服务效率和质量。

业务形态和结构

平安的业务形态是以平台形式对接医疗服务需求方和医疗资源提供方,由于医疗行业的特殊性,医疗服务中介平台的运营复杂度大幅度高出电商平台。且由于平台提供的医疗资源中服务占很打一部分比例,相比于商品,服务有其交付和用户评价的特殊性。

与平安旗下其他公司业务关联性很强。

平安好医生的收入结构

截止2017年12月31日,平安好医生的收入结构及各业务毛利率为
1. 家庭医生服务 - 收入13%,毛利58.9%
2. 消费型医疗 - 收入35%,毛利46.4%
3. 健康商城 - 收入48%,毛利11.7%
4. 其他 - 4%

2017年的收入中,核心医疗(刚需医疗,针对疾病)-家庭医生业务业务只占13%,大部分收入来自体检医美等消费型医疗(非必须)和健康商城(电商)合计占83%。虽然家庭医生服务收入占比不高,但是其毛利率相较其他业务较为突出。

2017年,家庭医生业务收入主要依赖平安保险业务的引流,消费型医疗业务的增长来自于体检服务的增长。健康商城业务增长来自于产品多元化,以及采购渠道的优化。

线下医疗线上化的拓展边界在哪里,线下问诊中依赖的测试和检验,如X光,验血等手段,是否能线上化? 平安好医生是否是平安集团生态的一个补充

IPO情况

有基石投资者,基石投资者限售6个月,无内部股份参与IPO发售。

港股IPO结构
全球发售:
1. 香港公开发售
2. 国际发售

Notes on Peter Lynch

Growth stocks are better than nongrowth stocks. Growth stock are companies with sales really going up (in reasonable profit margin or loss). If focusing in earnings growth only, then turnaround and cyclicals are mixed into the consideration. Cyclical factors are not reliable drivers of the long-term growths of a business.

A investment grade turnaround energy should be those that are free of bankruptcy risk in the next 18 to 24 months, or it has no investing value.

CMGE Group

Corporate Overview

CMGE Group is a mobile game operator focusing on mobile game publishing and operation in mainland China. According to CMGE Group's HKEX IPO prospectus published in Aug 10th, 2019, 65.14% of the group's revenue are derived from IP-based games. CMGE Group emphasized in the prospectus it is a leading IP-based mobile game operator and publisher. However, CMGE Group's market share in overall mobile game market in terms of gross billings is 1.5%.

The general revenue recognition principle in as follows: CMGE Group recognize publishing revenue as the gross billings paid by game players net of the amount remitted to third-party game developers. The cost of sales includes the revenue shared with and the royalities paid to publishing channels and IP owenrs.

(Game industry has a potentional double counting problem as both game publisher and game developer may treat gross billings paid by game players as their revenue)

Role in Mobile Game Industry

  1. Game developer
  2. Game publisher: Manage the life-cycle of a mobile game operation from marketing, distribution, player recruiting, customer service and etc.
  3. Game distributor

Question

The definition of "independent mobile game publisher" is unclear, yet it is a key concept in CMGE Group's self-portrait as a publisher with highest cumulative revenue generated from IP-based games. (defined as publishers that are not part of large conglomerates ?)

Glossary

ARPPU = Average Revenue Per Paying User

Uncollectible Accounts Receivables (Credit Risk)

The group considers a financial asset in default when contractual payments are 90 days past due.

As of June 30, 2019, we had RMB54.3 million outstanding
trade receivables past due over more than 90 days (10% of the trade receivalbes in HK dollar amount are past due as of June 30, 2019).
As of December 31, 2018, 3.2% of the trade receivalbes in HK dollar amount are past due).
As of December 31, 2017, 0.9% of the trade receivalbes in HK dollar amount are past due).
Net cash flows from operating activities significantly weak compared to net income.

The trade receivalbe credit terms can be extended up tp 270 days for major distribution channels.

Leagal Disbute

One of the leading game in terms of revenue contribution involved in a claim of intellectual property right infringement against the company.

复杂的持股结构

IP + Trade Receivalbe的资产持有公司

中手游主导和参与了众多知名IP的移动端游戏化
传奇世界之雷霆霸业,只在安卓端发行
择天记,实际上是腾讯发行
曙光之境,中美两国IOS应用商店均搜索不到

中手游在现在的估值水平,大概率不是一个优秀的投资标的。
中手游是国内专注于IP手游发行的发行商和运营商,根据招股书中的描述,截止2019年8月10日,公司64.15%的营收来自于基于成熟IP开发的手游。虽然招股书中着重强调中手游是国内最大的IP手游发行商和运营商,但以收入流水为统计口径,2019年该公司在包括IP和非IP游戏的整体手游市场中仅占1.5%的份额。这里也可以看出IP类游戏在手游整体市场中的流水份额约为16.12%。中手游取得的IP改编游戏授权大多期限为2到3年,到期需要续约,且为非独家授权。这意味着中手游需要面对其他IP手游发行商的同质化竞争,中手游的IP游戏需要在市场上与同IP游戏和其他手游一起竞争用户游戏时间和付费流水。

在2019年前6个月收入流水前5的游戏分别为:传奇世界之雷霆霸业,曙光之境,凡人飞仙传,龙珠觉醒,航海王强者之路。其中传奇世界之雷霆霸业贡献收入为7亿7千万人民币,占2019年前6个月中手游营收的50.5%。但因该游戏的发行,中手游已被热血传奇IP所有方在武汉市中级人民法院以知识产权侵犯为由提起诉讼。中手游的营业收入严重依赖传奇世界之雷霆霸业这个单一IP的运营,由于手游生命周期一般很短,收入过于集中给中手游业绩增长带来的隐患是不可忽视的,加上传奇IP纠纷给雷霆霸业未来的持续运营带来的隐患。中手游未来2到3年的业绩增长的可持续性存疑。

中手游从2017年到2019年手游流水和营收均实现了爆发式的增长,从2017年到2019年连续两年营收翻倍。与此同时,应收账款账期和违约率同步攀升,截止2019年6月30日,中手游有5千3百万人民币的应收账款违约,占全部应收账款的10%,2018年12月31日中手游违约应收账款占比仅为3.2%, 2017年12月31日中手游违约营收账款占比仅为0.9%。

以中手游IPO后的总发行股份数量、2019年前6个月的EBITA和中手游现阶段股价2.74人民币(3.05港币)计算,中手游现在的Price/EBITA比率约为12.1,在港股内资游戏公司的估值中处于适中水平。中手游的未来在于如何建立IP手游的独特发行运营优势,由于中手游现阶段深度依赖的传奇类IP游戏传奇世界之雷霆霸业并不为中手游所独有,该IP在端游、页游和其他手游品牌中均存在大量竞品且游戏世界观,游戏玩法高度雷同,该游戏在手游和整个传奇IP游戏中不具备持续优势地位的市场竞争力。

中手游现阶段的估值水平并没有明显低于同业平均水平,中手游依赖的传奇世界之雷霆霸业存在持续增长隐患以及IP纠纷,同时对头部IP的手游开发以及发行运营不具有独占性(如腾讯也同样发行龙珠以及火影忍者手游,传奇手游在市场上数量众多),这些因素共同决定了以中手游现阶段不论是从价值投资角度还是成长性上,都很难被称为是一个优秀投资标的。