Black Capitalism读书笔记

发改委权力范围

  1. 企业债的发行审核

监管机构

  1. 发改委NDRC -> 企业债
  2. 证监会CSRC -> 股票
  3. 人民银行PBOC -> 金融债
  4. 银行间市场协议NAFMII -> Medium Term Note
  5. 银监会CRBC
  6. 国资委SASAC
  7. 财政部MOF -> 地方债

金融简称

CP = Commerical Paper
MTN = Medium Term Note
CGB = China Government Bond

汇率政策

固定汇率制度限制利率政策的操作空间

A股IPO认筹锁定的资金通常是万亿人民币级别的

(500倍左右超额认购)

A股国企

国企的实控人和受益人均为国资委,并不以全体股东的利益为最优先考虑事项,这也解释了为什么上证指数10年未涨,上证,中证300等大盘指数的国企股票权重大,对大盘有决定性的影响。
国企在A股上市大都引入了大量的其他国企股东作为战略投资者,大型央企和国企交叉持股。
IPO的定价和配售机制决定了IPO价格低于市场公允价格,导致普遍的IPO后连续涨停板以及稀少的成交量。

国家的公司属性

中国的国家性质与西方商业公司有相似之处,都为追求股东利益最大化。中国的国家股东为CCP, 其根本的组织行动目的在于维持组织及组织核心成员在国内的政治、经济和文化等各领域的长期领导地位;以及分配社会资源的权力。

四大行和MOF

MOF -> 四大行 -> Corporate (Lending) -> GDP Growth
Corporate -> 四大行 -> MOF (Dividend)

2019年金融领域的解除管制

  1. 目的
    通过开放金融市场,吸引外资券商、保险等金融机构进入中国,从而达到扩大国外对内直接金融投资,为国内股权融资市场扩大资金来源,
    吸引外资进入中国金融市场,推动中国金融市场的效率提升,帮助降低国内杠杆。

举债发展的可行性

债务推动增长需要以GDP的高增长来保证债务可持续性,GDP增速下滑会导致社会财富增长低于利息支出,对债务人的偿债能力产生冲击。

央企、国企和券商银行对国债支持

国有企业和金融机构会被要求以资本金来购买国债和其他国有企业、地方企业债。

港交所

1949年内地的政权更替,导致了上海作为远东金融中心地位的消亡,资本、企业和人员大批迁移到香港,促进了香港金融市场往后50年的繁荣。

港币的地位问题

港币为何能成为一种能和美元等强势国际货币维持固定汇率的区域性货币

Value U.S. Stocks

Resolute Forest Product

Producer Price Index by Commodity for Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Wood Pulp

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU0911

Industry Overview Research Report

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/paper-forest-products-and-packaging/our-insights/pulp-paper-and-packaging-in-the-next-decade-transformational-change

The Revenue Trend

The gross profit of RFP is heavily affected by the International price of wood and pulp materials.

Gravity Co.

Estimated 2019 Price/ FCF per share ratio is currently around 6.2, no substantial value found under current market price.
Reevaluation can be proceed if price drops substantially (20%+) or future FCF growth (20%+).
TODO: Intransic Value Estimation if Q3 net income sustained.

TUSK

Expansion into Power Utility Infrastructure service through acquizition of unknown company.

During the second quarter of 2017, we expanded our pressure pumping, sand deliveries and last-mile trucking services into the SCOOP/STACK with the startup of our fourth pressure pumping fleet in June 2017. The startup of our fifth fleet in the mid-continent is scheduled for August 8, 2017, with our sixth fleet expected to commence operations in October 2017. In addition, on July 7, 2017, we acquired an energy service company from an unrelated third party seller for $2.3 million in cash and the assumption of $1.8 million in debt. This acquisition expands the infrastructure services of our other energy services division.

Form 10-Q

Majority of the revenue of the recent 3 quarters are from power utility service, which is a business acquired in the second quarter of 2017. The groups' previous major business oil mine drilling, related service business contribute in a minor percentage of the recent reporting period.

SANDRIDGE MISSISSIPPIAN TRUST I

Proved Developed Reserve of Natural Gas for SANDRIDGE MISSISSIPPIAN TRUST I as of Dec 31, 2018 is 9,522.9 MMcf, with an estimated equilvent dividend distribution of USD 1.26 (from Jan 2018 to Trust Disolution)

Law Suit

On July 2, 2018, defendants filed a motion for partial judgment on the pleadings, arguing that all claims asserted on behalf of the members of the putative class are barred by the statute of limitations. On March 26, 2019, the Court denied the motion without prejudice should discovery reveal a basis for again challenging the timeliness of plaintiffs' claims.

"Denied without prejudice" means the claim can be reargued again.

Major Risk

Security Law Suit Regarding The IPO of The Trust. Potentional loss may arise out of the litigation.

WF

Woori Financial Group Inc - 1 ADS = 3 Common Shares
Why the Korean Banking Industry is valued in low PE multiple of around 5.0 in general ?

DXC

Dxc technology
Why the valuation EV/EBITDA is 4.5 while ACN is 19.5.

2019年10月随笔

随笔

右侧交易

对比左侧交易,右侧交易在价值和趋势两种投资逻辑里都更容易控制风险,且操作信号更明显。

算法交易

2019年10月3日,北京时间晚上10点美国非制造业PMI指数发布,创2016年以来新低。同一时刻,美国三大股指30秒内跌幅达0.8%, 同期贵金属价格上涨约1%。5分钟后,三大股指回升至跌-0.3%左右,显示出在算法交易根据非制造业PMI指数负面信号导致大面积抛盘后,其他非算法市场参与者接盘的现象。
由此表明,算法抛盘具有时间集中性,潜在时间点可预测性,以及回升的可预测性。 回升一般出现在抛盘后的价格企稳之后,算法交易量骤减。

美股的风险偏好和美联储降低

美股大盘的风险偏好和美联储降息前景直接相关
中概股大盘和美股大盘呈强相关性,同时被美股机构投资者(大盘影响者)视为高风险资产

阿根廷上市银行普遍暴跌,显现出强烈的低估值特征

DXC Technology

Computer Sciences Corporation分拆出政府IT服务业务后,与惠普企业IT服务部门(HPE)合并,组成了DXC Technology;
2019年一,二季度公司营收大幅下降,股价下跌

开心汽车

The Share Exchange Agreement

By the share exchange agreement, Renren Inc is entitled to receive addidional ordinary shares of Seven Star if the revenue and earning performance in 2019 meet certain predefined metrics.

Capital Structure

Prospectus:
1. USD 10 Per Unit
18000000 Shares
180000000.5 Warrant
18000000
0.1 Right

  1. Before IPO
    4,312,500 Shares Outstanding
    USD 10,507 Net Asset

  2. After IPO
    6,124,044 Shares Outstanding
    USD 5,000,000 Net Asset

20,199,048 Shares (Possible Redemption)
USD 201,990,480

Questions

It is unknown why there still exist shares subject to redemption after the name of the firm is changed.

EDGAR Interactive Data Can Be Inaccurate

https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=1398453&accession_number=0001144204-16-091105&xbrl_type=v#
Year 2015, investment cash flow sector, the value of account "Acquisition of long-term investment" should be negative instead of positive.

Prelimary Quarter Report

多以拉升股价,市值管理为目的

中概股投机/坐庄

庄家资金入场前特征:
1. 大盘有阶段性显著利好消息(如中美达成第一阶段贸易协议)
2. 坐庄标的有利好消息(盈利改善,新的销售合同等)
3. 坐庄标的成交量少,市值低

2019年10月15日 Market Observation

下午4点左右,中国外交部发言人确认中美达成第一阶段协议。下午5点开始,标普500股指期货拉升0.5%左右。开盘前强生集团等标普成分股传来三季度盈利超预期消息,对冲了前几日市场对美股三季度盈利的悲观预期。开盘后美股指数开始上涨,中概股普遍上涨,开盘一小时后,开始有多个小盘中概股被热炒,普遍涨幅在50%以上。美股风险偏好上升,中概股炒作资金借势入场。

成长股的研究框架

  1. 调研公司的历史增长率(市场份额、营收等)在现有及未来几年的市场环境下是否能够持续、或者加强
  2. 调研公司能否在现有及未来市场环境下打开实现市场份额增长
  3. 调研行业的总体份额增长空间

市场总是不理性的

总是处于过度悲观或者过度乐观的状态

中国国有银行体系的坏账剥离和资产重组

1990年代
1. 坏账剥离: 四大行 -> AMC -> 财政部、人民银行 -> 税收、通胀
2. 资本金补充:
(1)四大行 <- 财政部、人民银行 (债券)
(2) 四大行 <- IPO

2000年代
1. 坏账剥离: 四大行 -> AMC -> 人民银行全资投资机构 -> 税收、通胀
2. 转移至表外债务(contingient liability)

2010-2019年
1. 资本金补充:永续债

印度房地产市场

2012年-2019年,孟买平均房价增幅在30%左右,增速一般

亚马逊三季度财报

受贸易战影响,亚马逊Cost of Sales增长快于Revenue, 结合其他费用增加,导致三季度主营业务毛利下降,净利也同步下降。

327万国期货

万国期货积累空投头寸,试图以期货市场的国债合约价格来影响现货市场的国债走势

Quote by Vice Premier Zhu Rongji in 1995

who was then responsible for the fi nancial sector, had fi ercely criticized
the rampant speculation in the bond futures market “by a number of huge
interest groups, taking funds of the state, the local governments, and the
enterprises to seek profi ts.”

日内阶段性横盘小幅抖动

是买盘动能不足的表现,经常是股价即将短期下行的表现。

交易软件的数据问题

  1. IB的浮盈浮亏数值不准确
  2. 富途的Market Order生成的交易记录在行情历史图里不显示