2019年9月随笔

贸易战下国内的市场政策目标

  1. 攘外必先安内,通过发布新政策来托底金融市场

新政策引导预期,短期内给市场注入信心,中长期通过改革方案的推出和落实改善二级市场运行质量,为二级市场(A股)的短期维稳和中长期上行提供政策支撑

市场资金流向上,通过对地产的打压,保持国内和国际资金流向持续向股票一级和二级市场和非地产融资板块倾斜

货币面上,通过新的贷款利率报价机制的推出来引导贷款利率下行,改善私营企业的融资环境,支持实体经济投资

Cloudflare IPO

Sales and Marketing Expenses accounted for 53% of revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2019.
The high ratio of S&M Expenses verses Revenue indicating a strong tie between the current revenue growth and marketing/sales effort, which is not a good signal for a Internet company providing market leading service.

HongKong Index ETF

FLHK = FTSE Hong Kong RIC Capped Index
EWH = MSCI Hong Kong Index

黄金国际市场的昼夜波动

(?) 阶段性规律? , 欧美主导金价, 黄金国际价格(美元)倾向于在欧美白天股市交易时段上升,在欧美夜晚(亚洲白天)时段回落,呈现明显的规律性。

Market Observation: 2019-9-5

随着贸易战的短暂缓和(中美定于10月在美国举行第13轮会谈),市场情绪得到舒缓,市场重心从避险资产转向风险资产,推动中美两地股市上涨。

The Correlation between Borkerage Stocks and The Market Index of A Share

Extremely high correlation in the past 3 years, the volatility of brokerage sector index is about 2X-3X of the market index. Move upward and downward synchronously.

大陆官方对香港游行的回应

大陆官方应该清楚香港游行的主要推动力量是香港本土中下阶层的不满而不是香港以外势力的介入,但为了降低自身在事件引爆中的深层次责任,降低民主诉求的正当性,官方依然声称香港游行背后有国外势力的介入。

Cyou Merger

Sep 9th, 2019. 16:00 beijing time, FuTu app pushed message regarding a 7% price jump in premark for Cyou.
16:07 Beijing time, market watch app pushed message about the announcement of acquisition proposal published on PRNewswire, price jumped further
to USD 8.3
16:37 Beijing time, price jumped to 8.5.7

2019年5月22日张朝阳向畅游提出过初步非约束性要约,但最后没有成功交易。
https://www.tmtpost.com/2615019.html

The price jump stabled at 10% discount of M&A price announcement, which is the same case in HPJ

In the previous trade, Cyou was sold due to a fear of China-US trade war would not fade out in years. As dividend declaration and outside merger was not likely in the current time, I assume there would be no news that can act as the driving force of the valuation discovery of CYOU. Apparently I missed the possibility of internal merger, which would very likely happen when the stock price experienced serious recent drop.

中美利差

降低降准推动利率债上涨,中美利差(算上汇率对冲成本)有利于外资单项流入

FRAN Short Squeeze

Short of Float (Aug 15, 2019) is 42.33%. In Sep 10, 2019, FRAN published quarterly financial report showing an improvement on operation. The stock surged from USD 5 to USD 10.5 at marketing opening, a price surged of 100%, short positions are partially forced to cover, new short positions are opened, turnover ratio over 400%. Market closed in USD 10.3. In Sep 11, 2019, FRAN price surged from USD 11.43 to USD 18, closed end of market at USD 16.65. Another 63.3% surged, short borrowing rate increased from 8.63% to 10.22%, turnover rate over 200%. In Sep 12, 2019, FRAN price dropped from USD 15.98 to USD 14.06, short borrowing rate surged to 187.04%. In Sep 13, 2019, FRAN price surged from USD 14.37 to USD 18.39, another 27.9% surge, short borrowing rate surged to 273.16%, turnover ratio over 200%.

The price growth of FRAN is constantly driven by vertical price spikes that are very likely to be forced short cover. After three days, the price of FRAN increased by 260%. The short positions opened around USD 5 before quarterly report are most likely to be coverred. New short positions opened after quarterly report at around USD 9 might or might not survive the second phase price growth of around 100%.

The price hike of FRAN is a self-reinforcing process as buyers anticipated buy orders from investors who are happy with the improve on finanical report, an prevailing bias that can be exploited by following the trend, creating a short squeeze of FRAN together with other uncoordinated investors who expect the same process to occur, fullfilling the typical pattern of buying because there is a market consensus that price will go up. After the first wave of forced short covering happened, a large portion of short sellers are forced out, replaced by a new batch of short positions, then these positions are force to close due to continuous price hike, which pushed the price higher, with large turnover ratio over 200% at price high days.

The self-reinforcing process slow down when newly opened short positions are at a high price that are difficuly to go up further, at the same time short ratio declined. The process will start to reverse when he previous winners of the game are eager to cash out, expecting a reverse of the trend and a consensus is reached, then a self-correcting process begins.

Attentions Brought By M&A News Can Maintain the Valuation of A Stock Even After Cancelled

Sep 17, 2019. The non-binding offer of Sohu to Cyou was withdrawed, but the stock price of Cyou was maintained at the level when the offer was made.

HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES

The Company has liquidity and solvency issue in year 2020, but the risk might not be priced in.

Analyst Tracking

Macquarie Research - Industrial Team, ET AL

关于诚实

诚实不代表透明,选择性隐瞒是绝大多数有优良品质社会人的共性

Unexpected Quarterly Report

below consensus

Yahoo Analyst Ratings and Estimate

The EPS is GAAP -EPS on Yahoo.

基于片面了解的"直觉"都是错觉

The Fair Value of ETF at Market Trading Hours

The fair value of ETF at market trading hours is determined by the supply and demand of the share, which are then determined by the in-time market price of the underlying securities and the expectation of the NAV of the ETF share on market close.

市场情绪已经形成共识的中概股在利好或利空财报发布后会形成单向拉升或下跌

每一次财报的发布,都是对已经形成的市场悲观共识的进一步验证,导致股价进一步下跌。这种市场情绪共识的加强,并不基于深度的财务分析和市场前景分析,而主要基于投资情绪的深化,和由财报信息披露触发的投资情绪向交易行为的转化(抛售或抢筹)

中概股财报发布后的股价变化,主要取决于财报对市场情绪的影响,且与财报发布前的分析师营收和EPS预估没有绝对的相关性(表明大部分中概股财报前股价走势受分析师预期影响有限)

在媒体和投资者中关注度越高的企业,这种强化现象越明显。每一次财报发布都会引发媒体和投资社区新的一轮讨论,重新成为热点。

Cloudflare

在独立的CDN供应商里,Cloudflare似乎缺乏同体量的行业竞争对手,可以和斗鱼的IPO后走势形成对比

板块和指数的普跌是市场回调的重要信号,可以作为做多策略实施过程中短期止盈和控制回撤(规避回调)的依据,用来尝试增加做多策略收益;

已经浮亏的做多策略无需根据市场回调止损,避免永久性资本损失。

上证50指数金融股过半

The Application of RS_T1 Strategy

RS_T1 strategy should only be used to generate secondary revenue by utilizing existing capital (1/5 of current capital).

TAL Impairment Loss on Long-term Investment

Fitting in the GAAP impairment loss on equity investment principle, the cost of equity investment (can be long-term investment or short-term investment) should be write down if a evaluated permantment loss is incurred.