Irrational Exuberance读书笔记

The Characteristics of Financial Asset Bubble

Financial asset bubble is more like speculative epidemics

Speculative Bubble

Feedback loop of Bubble

The Position of Media in Speculative Bubble

Significant market events generally occur only if there is similar thinking among
large groups of people, and the news media are essential vehicles for the spread
of ideas

2019年5月随笔

Productivity and Cost Efficiency

The success of tech innovations depend largely on its improvement of productivity and cost efficiency.

Leverage and Short Selling

Invest on leverage has two major characteristics: (1) As an amplifier of both gain and loss
(2) The investor can be forced to close position due to the fluctuation of market price.

Short selling is considered as using leverage in trade since the margin requirement is 150% which includes the sells proceeds, thus the actual consideration paid is only 50% of sells proceeds. The leverage can be as high as 2 is the account have only 50% of equity of the security short sold.

Leverage is considered as using borrowed capital in trade, short selling involves borrowed securities, the proceeds of short selling can be considered as the borrowed capital. The cover of a short position can be thought of as returnning of borrowed capital at a reduced amount.

Ex-ante and Ex-post

Ex-ante = Before the fact
Ex-post = After the fact

Fundamental Principle of Optimal Forcast

The forecast error must be uncorrelated with the forecast

Fundamental Research and Market Research

Fundamental research focus on determine the fair valuation of the firm in long-term perspective.
Market research is intended to evaluate the short and mid term overall stock supply and demand.

5月关注列表

  1. 百度(BIDI)
    关注理由,中美贸易战引发的中概股大跌,股价走弱,虽然中国经济随贸易战承压但公司盈利基本面并没有明显变化,随着2018年年报发布时间的邻近,在爱奇艺年报超出预期的情况下,在155价位的百度股票有中长期上升空间。在155 - 160价位区间可以考虑买入。

Methodologies

套利、市场热点发掘、短线交易

Short Term Market Sentiment

Short term market sentiment cannot be guarranteed to extend into mid term market sentiment.
Thus the profit should be protected by placing profit taking order no higher than a 5% gain.
Also, the potentional loss should be stopped by placing a stop loss order in case the short term market sentiment is not fully realized as market price or performed at all.

The source of gain comes from uptick orders triggered by short term market sentiment.

When the inflation rate is high as well as general stock price level, the real return is overestimated because of the same high interest rate.

中概股信息

智氪研究

VIX index

VIX指数实际上反映了市场观点的分歧程度

WWR Research Note

  1. The company acquired Turkey graphite mineral resources in 2015, but did not generate any revenue until the license was terminated in 2018, why is that.

英国退欧

  1. 英方的核心诉求在于享受欧盟权利却不履行欧盟成员国义务,这在欧盟看来是对其核心利益和秩序的侵犯,不可退让。 同时由于公投导致的退欧使得英方在谈判上的底线已然确定,直接导致了英国在谈判中的弱势地位。

经营现金流为负的公司

主导股价的主要是趋势影响而不是价值,负经营现金流使得盈利预测难以实现

Westwater Resources

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/other-areas/office-of-technology-evaluation-ote/section-232-investigations

CENTENNIAL, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR), an energy metals exploration and development company, commented on the recently completed Section 232 Investigation of Uranium Imports. President Trump now has up to 90 days from April 14 to decide whether to act on the matter, which can include quotas or tariffs, a timeline which concludes in mid-July.

The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a Section 232 investigation in July 2018 to determine whether the present quantity of uranium ore and product imports threaten to impair U.S. national security. U.S. uranium production has declined significantly since 1987, with domestic uranium producers experiencing a major slowdown in operations and employment.

Christopher M. Jones, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We believe that, regardless of the decision that will be made by the President, U.S. producers will benefit in the near term. The U.S. utility companies are expected to come back to the market and stock-up on fuel supplies even if the President decides to deny the petition. In the event that the decision is in favor of the Section 232 action, U.S. producers will see greater demand for domestically produced uranium. Either way, we expect the price of uranium produced in the United States to rise.

“The U.S. relies heavily on nuclear power for carbon free base load power. According to UxC, more than 20% of all uranium produced in the world is consumed in the U.S. Nuclear power represents the only electrical base load solution for global electric power growth driven by economic expansion and a focus on carbon reduction.

“Uranium remains a key strategic focus for Westwater. Westwater Resources controls extensive mineral holdings in New Mexico and Texas. In addition, WWR owns the Rosita and Kingsville Dome processing facilities in Texas, both of which are licensed for production,” concluded Mr. Jones.

Short-term and Long-term Stock Selectivity

Short-term: Timing > Pricing
Long-term: Pricing > Timing