Sohu, Cyou and Sogou

Sohu 2018 Annual Report

  1. Brand advertising segment gross margin was 20% for 2018, compared to negative 16% and 17%, respectively, for 2017 and 2016.

Notes: The imporvement was mainly attributable to a decrease in video content costs and impairment charges compared to 2017.
The operation is sohu video is approaching profitable under the current trend as stated by the 2018 annual report.
However, the revenue drops accompanied with cost cut is significant. It is expected that sohu video will drop to a revenue level the same with sohu website advertising, and loss its position as the company's future revenue driving force.

  1. The search and search-related advertising gross margin was 35% for 2018, compared to 48% and 51%, respectively, for 2017 and 2016. The decrease in our search and search-related advertising gross margin for 2018 was mainly due to higher traffic acquisition costs as a percentage of search and search-related advertising revenues

Notes: The traffic acquisition cost surges along with the growth of revenue, which is a negative signal. Actually, the cost of revenue increased faster than ad revenue.

2011-2019 RS_T1 BackTest Short Loss Stocks

2011

  1. IDCC
    InterDigital Wireless Inc
    Business: Wireless Patent monetization

Time Period: 2011-7-20 to 2011-8-10
Price: 67.79 to 68.84

Patent portfolio interested by Google, Apple, etc. The time period is in the middle of communication patent (4G) hikes.

2013

  1. YRCW
    YRC Worldwide Inc
    Business: Transportation

Time Period: 2013-5-6 to 2013-5-28
Price: 15.48 to 19.5

Proposed merger with another freight company got rejected, unclear why the stock price hike in this period.

2015

  1. TRVN
    Trevena Inc
    Business: Drug R&D

Time Period: 2015-9-2 to 2015-9-24
Price: 11.44 to 12.44

Biopharmaceutical Uncertainty

  1. WW
    Weight Watchers International, Inc
    Business: Personal Services (Weight Loss Training)
    Time Period: 2015-10-20 to 2015-11-10
    Price: 18.25 to 22.53

Oprah Winfrey announced her investment into the company.

  1. CSTM
    Constellium N.V.
    Business: Aluminium production
    Time Period: 2015-11-6 to 2015-11-30
    Price: 8.19 to 8.77

Cause of Price Hiking in the time period mentioned above: unknown

  1. LXU
    Lsb Industries Inc
    Business: Chemical manufacturing
    Time Period: 2016-3-2 to 2016-3-23
    Price: 9.19 to 12.27

Cause of Price Hiking in the time period mentioned above: unknown

  1. BXC
    BlueLinx Holdings
    Business: Building material wholesaling
    Time Period: 2018-3-13 to 2018-4-4
    Price: 34.04 to 34.14

Price hide due to merger with another building material wholesaler, expecting increased operation efficiency and related cost-saving effect.

  1. AGMH
    AGM Group Holdings Inc
    Business: Finance Technology (Chinese Company)
    Time Period: 2018-6-13 to 2018-7-5
    Price: 16.21 to 21.32

Merger news, possible 炒作 by Chinese investors

  1. HEAR
    Turtle Beach
    Business: Consumer Electronics
    Time Period: 2018-5-11 to 2018-6-4
    Price: 16.03 to 17.84

Battle Royale gaming trending brought increasing demand for headset from new players.

  1. GRVY
    Gravity Co., LTD
    Business: online gaming
    Time Period: 2017-1-19 to 2017-2-9
    Price: 20.60 to 21.21

大陆授权手游: 仙境传说(永恒守护的爱)开启beta测试

Reading Notes

Bank Management (Peter S Rose)

The asset weight of commerical banks among financial service providers declined from 66% to 25% in a century.

2019年4月随笔

汽车制造业

汽车制造业为重资产行业,互联网打法不占优势

Why Drawdown Can Not Be Avoided

Drawdown is nearly impossible to avoid for a number of reasons.

First, both macro and micro economy systems has inherent cycles, including security market, where price got pushed up by up-tick buying forces for a variety reasons and drove down by subsequent asset monetization encouraged by price rise.

Second, we all frequently make mistakes when trading, either in stock pick or timing. The reality that we cannot realiably predict both market and specific stock movement makes drawdown normal.

Credit

Credit can be divided into two broard categories:
1. The credit of currency (The goodfath of government monetary authority)
2. A claim on currency

CHGG

The future profitability of CHGG lies on the R&D and monetization of technology driven online learning system. Current valuation level can be justified by evolutinoal educations solution, which remains unclear in both product design and market reaction.

First Order Consequence

The most direct consequence
Second Order Consequence : The most indirect consequence. Which is the consequence that is result as the first order consequence. Thus, a cause-and-effect chain.

盘内交易

前一个交易日拉升,第二个交易日散户入场抬高股价,主力缓慢退出获利,主力退出速度不能太快,防止股价暴跌,导致没有买盘。
开盘后2小时交易量高涨,后续交易量逐渐放缓。

大涨时交易量放大,股价抬升,缓跌时交易量缩小,交易节奏放缓。

做投资要有想象力

投资是反人性的

Thoughts

Both Chinese and U.S. stock market can be followed, but only short U.S. general stocks, and long/short for U.S. non Chinese company stocks.

Trading strategies for China market should be niche position, advance position in potentional niche industry sector stocks. Niche finding can be localised in China, or from niche in the U.S. market.

Trading strategies for U.S. market should be short selling following various signals, reports plus self-analysis result.

For China company stock in U.S. market, cutting edge can be possibly obtained from information advantage.

For U.S. market, buying IPO hot stock and dump at the end of IPO day may be a viable strategy, since U.S IPO has no stock subscription limit.

WorkOut Deal的成立条件

  1. 有价值洼地
  2. 有可预测的股东行动

Price Impact of Follow-on Offering

If the offering price is higher than the market, the market price will be pull up.
If the offering price is lower than the market, the market price will decline due to the possible short sell arbitrage oppertunity to thoes who receive stocker in the offering.

价值投资对市场未来走势预测的态度

做出走势的大致判断,但不依赖该判断

关于投资工具

中国券商投资工具在交互体验和易用性上大幅领先美国市场同行,源于中国软件免费,市场信息免费的商业氛围,相比之下美国券商的市场信息和投资工具获取门槛更高,交互体验更弱。

美国银行股的跳涨

说明了我个人的判断与美国最新的市场共识接近, 开盘未公告财报的银行股也普涨,说明BOA和JPM财报公布提升了市场对整体银行板块的盈利期望。

关于交易量和股价走势的关系

交易量下降通常伴随着股价下行

April and May Goal

Double $ 200 in day trading Chinese Concept Stocks. When value declined below $ 100, declared failure and start over with reflections.

Money Market Fund

A股打新策略
美股A股票热点迁移策略

short 30 shares of CLWT

低吸高抛的短期投机,不能以基本面为由而不及时止损抛出。

根据信息进行报价,不被大盘主导

股价变化动量在达到市场期望价格前只会被新的消息影响,新的消息包括其他其他市场参与者的仓位变化

Trend following, in a short term trend, the probability of trend continuing in the next day is larger than discontinue.

追求潜在热门题材但不追次要股,同时,作为投机型交易,股价走势与预期相反时不及时抛出,导致了被套浮亏,要及时止损

纵然投入量少,被套的损失有限,但从仓位角度来看被套就意味着失去后续交易机会,绝对金额的小并不影响投机认赔快进快出的原则

想法没有用实盘收益验证过前,贸然全仓压入,意图博取超额收益,不明智。

总金额的多寡不影响投资或投机中的风控原则

任何单一标的投资,半仓都是极限

净资产高于市值的公司机会

The dynamic of stock price burst for small cap companies.

News incentive attracts speculators buys in bulks of stock, which pulls up stock price and attracts community attention, primarily individuals investors from Chinese mainland and Hongkong. The speculators then slowly close their position, sell stocks to late entry individuals. The stock price would not dramatically fall after the main players close their positions. Rather, it would slowly going upward flueculy. This happens because late entry individuals are expecting further price growth. The dynamic continues in the same pattern until price is bid to a unsustainable level, leading to a irreversible slipping.

1/5仓位低点买入当日暴涨中概股,股价上升20%后抛出,附加market on close order

不能被想赚情绪左右交易决策

加强关注股的财报发布时间节点

follow company constantly to search for trading opportunities

The purpose of equity and market research is to find great trading timings.

IPO Subscription

IPO subscription requires to buy at least 1000 shares.

The cause of IPO failure

The greedy of private investor and underwriters together with lack of public interest is the cause of IPO failure.

Pinterest Trading Guide

  1. 90% gain target if trading is hot = $ 36.1
  2. 30% gain target if not so hot = $ 24.7

The margin of safty of Trend Follow Speculation can be improved

The momentum of trend realization is longer than expected by inspection of recent trading activities

Dalio's 5-step Process

  1. Have clear goals
  2. Identify and don't tolerate the problems that stand in the way of your achieving those goals
  3. Accurately diagnose the problems to get at their root causes
  4. Design plans that will get you around them
  5. Do what's necessary to push these designs through to results

Inflation

An increase in inflation rate reflects growth of demand is faster than the growth of supply.

Increase in inflation indicates a higher economic activity.
Inflation rate also influence the inflation expection of market participants, a mildly growth inflation means the general price level will grow, which leads to the cost of revenue. The market participants are more willing to spend and invest under the expection of future inflation due to its impairement effect on buying power. This is partially to boost future economic return.