Ray-Dalio-Principles-Life-and-Work读书笔记

Ray Dalio's Investing Philosophy

It seems that Ray Dalio doesnot base his trading decision on the under or overvaluation of financial assets, he instead traded based on the prediction of future price movement. The attribute price movement not unpon the traditional market supply and demand theory, but more practically, transactions. By research deeply into the forces behind market movements based on historical data and the mechanism of economic world, Dalio was able to make bettings that have consistent returns.

Ray Dalio's success demenstrates the difference between stock market and the derivative market. From a value investing's perspective, Ray Dalio is more of a speculator than an investor.

2019年3月随笔

中概股问题

与欧美公司相比,中概股各种行业的上市公司均有严重的公司治理问题,漠视中小股东利益的行为很普遍。
少部分行业垄断性公司股价突出,收到市场追捧,其他公司股价低迷,长期处于股价下行阶段。

另外,由于法律环境和商业文化的不同,中概股低价退市和私有化等有损中小股东利益的行为屡见不鲜,且实质上不受到相关美国规则约束。

与美国本土上市公司相比,中概股股票的收益权属性更为突出,所有权属性几乎无法体现,二级市场投资人的长期投资在最终退出上有极大的不确定性。

以上种种均导致了非优质中概股在投资上的天然折价现象,以及普遍的做空盈利空间。

搜狗的控制权问题

虽然根据协议,搜狐以少于50%的投票权对搜狐董事会拥有控制权,但搜狗赖以营利的核心资产是腾讯赋予其的腾讯系流量入口。从这个意义上讲,腾讯对搜狗的影响力不亚于实际控股。

搜狗的腾讯系入口 (38%流量, 2018财年):
1. 腾讯网(www.qq.com) 搜索栏
2. PC版QQ问问个人中心
3. PC端QQ浏览器默认搜索引擎
4. 手机端QQ浏览器默认搜索引擎
5. 腾讯网址导航daohang.qq.com
6. 腾讯网址导航hao.qq.com

腾讯感冒,搜狗打喷嚏

搜狐的估值折价问题

搜狐市值 < 搜狐持有的(搜狗+畅游)股票市值
(绿色: 搜狐, 蓝色: 搜狗+畅游)
搜狗v.s.搜狗+畅游

搜孤的股价波动系统性的晚于搜狗+畅游股价的简单算术和,有被用来套利的空间

搜狗的流量获取问题

搜狗的主要盈利方式是广告,而在流量获取上,搜狗依赖手机制造商的软件预装业务来支撑其流量的扩展,非自然流量,存在成本上浮侵蚀盈利空间的隐患。

游资热炒题材的问题

游资选择题材股进行炒作,需要结合当前政策热点和新闻热点选择股票。 热点的目的是拉高股价后,热点本身会作为讨论和传播的"题材"在散户和机构之间传播和扩散,使得股价走势产生动能,方便游资后续获利退出。

Where Does the Profit of Speculative Trading Come From ?

The irrationality of market participators provides profits for speculative trading. Just like in Texas Hold'em Poker game.

The majority of market participators are casual individuals, whose trading decisions are largely dominated by personal emotions. They are the amplifier of market trends.

The High Valuation of Marijuana Stocks

At price 70 USD per share, TLRY is being valued at over 100 Price/Sales multiple and seems to be something other than marijuana fan's zeal for pursuing marijuana related subjects. There is a considerable portion of speculative investors involved in holding TLRY at current price level. Their logic behind the current position is vital for the understanding of marijuana stocks.

The valution of marijuana stocks share similarities with Internet stock in its potentional of high speed future growth. Typically at a rate of 300% to 1000% annual growth in key operation metrics for the next 3 to 5 years. The investors valuing TLRY at over 100 Price/Sales ratio must be expecting a future performance like that. As the legal marijuana
market is not exist until a few months ago, everything is in the reasonable imagination.

However, it is a question whether the marijuana industry inherently similar to the Internet industry. Will the marijuana industry be naturally concentrated as the Internet industry, where a few companies owns over 80% of the market. In my opinion, the answer is no. The two industries differ greatly in the marginal production cost. The primary product of marijuana industry is a phsical substance that requires cultivation, production and transporation. While the Industry industry deliver online service that has nearly zero marginal cost per additional user, as compared to other industries.

The possibility of a marijuana business to achieve a annual growth of 300% to 1000% is remote, given the nature of the product as well as the intensive competitions from other market participator. This is especially true as recreational marijuana products from different companis are very similar in nature, which makes competitive advantage very hard to be built.

Chinese Stock Market

Practicing along with the market for the investing of A shares in Chinese stocks is not acceptable. A comprehensive strategy needs to be developped. Available traing styles including herd behavior speculation, market-trend forecast, value investing and news driven speculation. Trading simulation is essential for the verification of strategy.

淘手游的胜利

淘手游赢在差异化竞争和现金流

中国商品房土地供应

中国商品房土地供应市场是单边垄断市场,政府是唯一的供应方,理论上放开土地供应会压低市场房价,但放开土地供应的举措与1. 土地计划经济体制 2. 政府对土地供应的控制 相矛盾,故土地供应在可见的将来不会放松管制。

租金是购房收益的货币收益部分,但其他非货币收益也不容忽视,如与商品房绑定的户口、子女入学、社会福利;同时,随适龄青年结婚组成家庭,继而产生的对稳定居所、以及婚后改善住房条件的客观需求,也是购房收益的一部分。

From Ray Dalio's Economic Framework

Economic Activatity = Direct Product/Service Creation + Product/Service Transportation (Trading)

Ray Dalio oppose using the traditional supply and demand framework to analysis the market. The traditional supply and demand framework focus on the balance of supply and demand of product by the same quantity of exchange, but ignores the motivations, identity and total amount of spending of the purchaser.

Market Price

Market price is determined by the total amount spent by buyers divided by total quantity sold by sellers, in which buyers are the driving force of price movement. Dramatic price movement happens only when there is both purchasing power from buyers and available unit for sell by sellers.

Market Participants

Producers, Traders, Consumers

Sohu, Cyou和Sogou

三家公司均未按时发布2018年年报(与往年相比已晚了20多天),同期股价下跌5%左右

Planning For April

  1. Focus on shorting strategies research
  2. Research historial shorting opportunities, what their signals look loke, what's the best strategies at the time
  3. Find more signals to find shortable stocks
  4. Double U.S. portfolio

Profile of Chinese Stock Market

参与者:
1. 散户 - 追逐热点
2. 游资 - 制造、炒作市场热点
3. 私募 -
4. 公募