文件加密

1、使用tar对文件压缩加密:
在当前目录下有一个pma目录的文件夹:

tar -zcvf - pma|openssl des3 -salt -k password | dd of=pma.des3
完成将得到一个pma.des3的打包文件,用你设置的密码替换password。

2、使用tar对加密文件解压:

dd if=pma.des3 |openssl des3 -d -k password|tar zxf -
注意:命令最后有”-”,它将释放所有的文件。其中-k password可以不使用,这样执行完命令后会提示你输入密码,加上-k参数表示在程序中自动验证密码。

带上美股ETF,开启跟罗杰斯一样的环球投资旅行之路

带上美股ETF,开启跟罗杰斯一样的环球投资旅行之路
地球是圆的,就像个橙子。 --加西亚·马尔克斯 《百年孤独》
在美国有一位投资大佬,他既不像离群索居在奥马哈小镇喝着可乐哼着歌去上班的“股神”巴菲特,也不想以四处投机做空而声名大噪的索罗斯,他被人尊称为“环球投资家”,他就是吉姆·罗杰斯。他曾与女友一起用了22个月的时间完成了骑摩托车的环球旅行,并在奥地利、日本、葡萄牙、德国、新加坡等地球的各个角落进行投资并收获了丰厚的回报,其投资生涯令人顶礼膜拜、高山仰止。当然了,罗杰斯毕竟是大佬,是毕业于耶鲁大学和牛津大学的专业投资大师,仿佛距离我们普通人十分遥远。但是,带上美股ETF,我们普通人也能和罗大佬一样,环球旅行,投资全球。到那时,地球对于我们来说,就真的很像一个香甜可口的橙子。

782_357_1536_701_320_146
图1-1 全球主要市场指数
一 国家

投资就是投资国运。 --沃伦·巴菲特
美国

美国股票市场是全球范围内最发达、最规范、最活跃的股票市场,没有之一。我今天所讲述的所有ETF,也都是美股市场上的ETF产品,通过美股可以轻松达到配置全球资产的目的。当然,这里所指的是投资于美国本土市场的ETF产品。

讲到美股的ETF,就不得不提基金界的“三巨头”:贝莱德(Blackrock)、先锋集团(Vanguard Group)和道富资管(State Street),这三家公司占据全美约80%的市场份额,所以我们在美股市场上所看到的绝大多数ETF都是这三家公司发行的。我们经常看到某些ETF后面会标注Vanguard,即代表先锋集团发行;某些ETF前面会标注iShares,一般翻译成“安硕”,其实这就是贝莱德发行的产品,因为安硕属于贝莱德旗下。这三家巨头公司目前形成“三足鼎立”的局面,同时又基本涵盖所有的投资标的,所以购买ETF时尽量选择这三家公司的产品。一是流动性更高,二是大公司更有保障。

众所周知,美股有三大指数:道琼斯工业指数$道琼斯指数(.DJI.US)$、标普500指数$标普500指数(.INX.US)$和纳斯达克指数$纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC.US)$。这三个指数的编制规则、重仓股和特点已经是老生常谈的话题了,不清楚的同学可以自行查阅。本文还是紧扣只是征集的主题,谈一下具体的投资标的。

说道标普500指数,我们几乎可以条件反射性的想到一个明星产品——SPY$标普500指数ETF-SPDR(SPY.US)$。这个ETF确实十分有名,曾受到巴菲特的多次推荐,而且所有讲述ETF的书籍和文章言必提SPY。这款ETF是前面讲到的道富资管发行的,同时我们发现它的名字后面有一个SPDR,即“Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts(标准普尔存托凭证)”的缩写。因为它的发音和“蜘蛛”(Spider)近似,所以华尔街以蜘蛛作为该ETF的昵称。其实,贝莱德公司和先锋集团也都发行了追踪标普500指数的产品(这两家公司真是非常和善的友商),贝莱德发行的是IVV$标普500指数ETF-iShares(IVV.US)$,先锋发行的是$标普500ETF-Vanguard(VOO.US)$。就费率来说,SPY的费率是0.09%,VOO的费率是0.05%,IVV的费率是0.04%,而三者的跟踪误差和收益水平基本相同。所以相对而言,费率最低的IVV是最佳的选择。

讲完了标普,我们再来看看纳斯达克指数。提到跟踪纳指的ETF,相信很多同学脱口而出——QQQ$PowerShares QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$。但是请注意,QQQ跟踪的是纳斯达克100指数$纳斯达克100(.NDX.US)$而非上面提到的纳斯达克指数,它是由纳斯达克指数中市值最大的100家公司组成的。我们都知道,美国的新经济是由谷歌、苹果、微软、亚马逊这些高科技公司引领的,所以投资美国科技板块的长期回报率更高,当然风险也要更高。目前纳斯达克指数和纳斯达克100指数已经处于一个很高的位置,此时进场需要格外注意风险。

对于道琼斯指数,这是一个很古老的指数,它诞生于1896年。但可能正是由于它太古老了,所以它的编制方法不太适合当今市场。它最大的问题在于它规定谁的股价高、谁的权重就大,而不是像标普500指数一样采用自由流通市值加权来确定权重,所以不太符合现代股市指数可投资性的选择。随着标普500指数不断崛起并成为衡量美股蓝筹股的标杆指数,道琼斯指数日渐式微,这里就不再过多讨论了。当然,美股市场跟踪道琼斯指数的ETF还是有的,最著名的是——DIA$道琼斯指数ETF(DIA.US)$。

除此以外,还有一个不是那么多人熟知却十分优秀的指数,那就是标普400指数,其对应的ETF为$标普中型股400指数ETF-SPDR(MDY.US)$。它是由标普的400支中型股构成的指数,其长期回报率比大盘指数更大,而波动性比大盘指数更小,尤其适合于长线投资者。

发达国家

这里所说的发达国家(地区),是指除去美国之外的发达市场,与传统政治意义上的“发达国家”有一定区别。不过一般来说,政治上的发达国家也拥有发达成熟的股票市场。包括欧洲、日韩、澳大利亚和中国香港等国家和地区在内的股票市场,拥有相对完善的市场机制和成熟的环境,所以形成了一个专有的概念EAFE(Europe,Australia and Far East),一般称之为“非美发达国家”。该投资标的也有其对应的ETF——$欧澳远东指数ETF-iShares MSCI(EFA.US)$,是贝莱德发行的ETF。该ETF最大的特点在于投资非美的发达地区,投资比较分散,风险很小,一般不会出现发达国家集体市场崩溃的情况(除非是全球性的严重经济衰退);但各个发达地区的市场情况由不尽相同,由此也会带来相互拖后腿的问题,造成投资回报收益率不高。不过一般在欧洲央行和日本政府进行货币宽松的周期时,股市一般会有一波不错的行情,此时可以用该ETF对发达市场进行“一揽子”投资。

新兴市场

一般与发达国家相对的概念,就是新兴市场;在股票市场,与发达市场相对应的就是新兴市场的概念,包括中国香港、中国台湾、中国大陆、印度、巴西、南非和墨西哥等一系列经济高速发展的新兴区域。当然我们可能要问了,为啥香港又在发达市场又在新兴市场呢?那是因为“发达”和“新兴”本身也是一个相对的概念,从历史和规范程度来说香港市场确实是一个发达市场,但同时又有很多内地的公司在香港上市(H股模式),由于目前中国内地属于新兴市场,所以就把香港也归于“新兴市场”当中。当然,具体怎么划分只是华尔街制定的一个标准,并不需要过多纠结。新兴市场对应两支比较有名的ETF——先锋集团发行的$新兴市场ETF-Vanguard MSCI(VWO.US)$和贝莱德发行的$新兴市场ETF-iShares MSCI(EEM.US)$(这对老冤家真是什么都要杠)。尽管这两支ETF都跟踪新兴市场,但是跟踪的指数却不一样。VWO跟踪的是FTSE新兴市场指数,而EEM跟踪的是MSCI新兴市场指数,这两个指数最大的区别就是MSCI新兴市场指数中加入了韩国市场,且为第二重仓。同时,VWO的费率仅为0.14%,而EMM的费率为0.7%,是前者的五倍。所以,如果你比较看好韩国市场,可以投资EEM;但如果对韩国市场不太看好而又比较看重ETF的费率,那么投资VWO是更佳的选择。

二 债券

美国国债在发达市场债券中最具吸引力。 --比尔·格罗斯
在电影《大空头》中,华尔街几位眼光独到的交易员在美国次贷危机前看穿了泡沫假象,通过做空次贷CDS而大幅获益,成为少数在金融灾难中大量获利的投资枭雄。当然,我们都知道这是电影中的桥段,剧中的人物当然也是虚构的。然而,现实生活中确实存在预测到金融危机来临的大佬,被誉为“债王”的格罗斯就是其中之一。在2006年,62岁的格罗斯预测美国将爆发次贷危机,这也令他一举封神,他本人也靠债券交易而发家致富。但是,另外一位投资大佬巴菲特却不是很看好债券,巴菲特经常在各种场合diss债券,他认为美国债券的长期收益率是远远落后于美国股市的。同样的,很多小散根本瞧不起债券,认为其收益率过低,甚至还跑不过余额宝。但是,债券不仅是一个非常重要、需要我们了解的一个投资标的,同时往往在股市行情不好的时候能走出一波较好的行情,也就是我们常说的“股债轮动”。所以对于普通投资者来说,了解债券ETF还是很有必要的。

短期债

$美国国债1-3年ETF-iShares(SHY.US)$,贝莱德发行的一支短期债ETF,持有距离到期日1~3年的债券;

$美国国债3-7年ETF-iShares(IEI.US)$,同样也是贝莱德发行的、一支中短期债ETF,持有距离到期日3~7年的债券;

其中SHY是所有的国债ETF中规模最大的,同时根据一般的市场规则,到期日越短的债券其收益率也较低,派息也不算太高,所以短期债适合短期持有,不建议长期持有。

中期债

$债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年(IEF.US)$,还是贝莱德发行的、一支中期债ETF,持有距离到期日7~10年的国债,且每月都有分红。相对来说,由于其持有的国债到期时间较短期债券长,所以其收益率和分红率要高于短期债ETF。

长期债

$iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF(TLH.US)$,还还是由贝莱德发行的一支长期债券,持有距离到期日10~20年的债券;

$iShares安硕20年期以上美国国债(TLT.US)$,贝莱德发行的一支超长期债券ETF,持有到期日20年以上的债券。因其持有的债券年期很长,所以收益也是最高的。当我们分析出可能即将出现一波债市的牛市时,我们可以逢低杀入,可以取得相当可观的收益。

公司债

上面介绍的ETF,都是以美国的国债为主。我们知道,美国国债都是3A以上评级,是世界上最安全的资产之一。相比之下,美国公司发行的债券安全性就低了许多。但是我们都知道,风险与收益成正比。风险相对高的资产,其收益也高。当然,美国的公司债本质上也并非高风险资产。比如像苹果公司,其市值超过全球180个国家的GDP,现金储备达到2437亿美元,其发行的公司债又有多危险呢?所以经过一定挑选的公司债ETF,就是我们投资美国公司债的最佳途径。

贝莱德发行的LQD$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD.US)$就是这样一支产品,它的名字中含有“投资级”公司债,代表该ETF是通过策略筛选的。什么叫“投资级”呢?也就是“可投资级别”评级,与之相对的还有“可投资以下”评级。华尔街把AAA、AA、A、BBB评级的债券称为“可投资级别”,而把BBB以下评级的债券称为“可投资以下级别”,也称垃圾债。虽然华尔街的评级并不太过可信(看过《大空头》的投资者相比对评级机构的丑恶嘴脸印象深刻),但是也包含一定的参考价值。因此专注于投资“可投资级别”公司债的LQD的风险不会过高,而收益又要高于上面介绍的国债ETF。从长期来看,公司债的收益是要高于国债收益的。

三 汇市

你抓不住我的把柄。 --乔治·索罗斯
每一个投资人,都听说过索罗斯在1997年做空泰铢,引发亚洲金融风暴的故事。索罗斯看到泰国的货币供给暴增、大举借债、泡沫巨大,同时还实行固定汇率制,于是便开始大量从银行拆借泰铢,然后在市场大量抛售。吃瓜群众也不明就里也跟着抛售泰铢,泰铢汇率开始暴跌。等到泰铢疯狂贬值后,索罗斯再以较低价格购回还给银行。最终,泰国央行耗尽了所有的外汇储备,金融体系一夜之间全然崩溃,国际大空头们赚的盆满钵满、满载而归。这个故事,讲述的就是汇率的巨大力量。当然,索罗斯是专业的投机做空大师,外汇投资具有很高的门槛、需要很专业的投资和数学知识,我们这种没有专业知识的小散投资外汇具有很高的风险。当然,还是那句话,ETF可以解决所有的问题。通过汇率ETF,我们可以相对简洁、低门槛、低风险的投资汇率市场。

虽然全球有很多国家,每个国家都有自己的货币。但是,最有影响力、占据统治地位的,还是美元。我们知道汇率一般是相对概念,就像同学、同事、敌人一样,必须成对出现。但是有一个指数,是衡量美元在全球货币体系中相对价值的一种指数,那就是美元指数。美元指数主要由一揽子的其他主流货币包括欧元、日元、英镑、加拿大元、法郎等组成,也就是通过持有其他货币来体现美元的购买力,从而判断“美元的强弱程度”。与这一指数相挂钩的ETF,就是$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP.US)$。它是目前规模最大的美元指数ETF,同时挂钩的是德意志银行发布的影响力最大的美元指数(我们知道指数只是一种编制策略,所以美元指数也有多种编排方法,并没有一个统一的“美元指数”)。当全球货币体系中其他主流货币贬值、或者美元升值时,该指数就会上升。比如当美联储进行加息周期时,美元进入强周期,美元就会升值;或者当欧洲和日本央行进行“放水”时,欧元和日元就会进入贬值期。此时UUP就会随着美元指数的上涨而不断上涨,获得不错的收益。

无论是美元升值,还是欧元和日元贬值,相对来说就是一个欧元和日元疲软的过程,所以UUP也可以看成是一个做空欧元和日元的ETF(至少有这方面的功效)。而美股市场还有专门做空汇率的ETF,例如$欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空(EUO.US)$是通过两倍杠杆专门做空欧元的ETF,而$日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空(YCS.US)$则是通过两倍杠杆专门做空日元的ETF。其实美股市场中,有很多杠杆ETF和反向ETF,但是在此之前并未做介绍,原因就是——完全不适合普通散户。杠杆和反向ETF的发行商,是最希望有更多的人来买和交易的,但是连他们都在产品发行书中提示“杠杆和反向ETF仅用来进行日内对冲和套利”,但是很多散户却认为自己可以不听信发行商的忠告而通过杠杆产品谋取暴利。就如同一家药品生产商提示有心脏病高血压的患者禁用该药物而一位同时患有心脏病和高血压的患者却认为生产商是在危言耸听,不足为惧,自己可以从该药物上收获奇效。还有的ETF新手教程上来就向散户介绍杠杆货和反向货,不是蠢就是坏!再次强调,杠杆和反向ETF只适合专业交易者做短期对冲和套利使用。回到话题,这里之所以介绍到带杠杆的ETF,是因为相对来说汇率的变动较小,所以收益很小,只有经过杠杆放大才能获得较为可观的收益。即使如此,也只能小仓,且短期持有,绝对不可以“杠杆上满,全仓梭哈,赢了嫩模,输了干活”。

除了以上介绍的欧元和日元做空的ETF外,美股市场上还有一些其它的外汇ETF,例如$英镑ETF-CurrencyShares(FXB.US)$、$欧元ETF-CurrencyShares(FXE.US)$、$日元ETF-CurrencyShares(FXY.US)$等等,在此不做过多介绍。看多相关货币的小伙伴们可以在适当的时机进入,相比直接操作外汇买卖更加方便。

四 楼市

辛辛苦苦创业投资几年下来,还不如炒一套房赚得多。 --中国谚语
REITs

绝大多数的国人,都对房子有很特殊的情结。毕竟我们是一个有着“家国情怀”的民族,房子在一定意义上就是家和生活的化身。中国人的平均买房年龄是27岁,而美国人的平均买房年龄是41岁,由此可见一斑。不仅年轻人喜欢买房,有钱的大妈们也喜欢买房,很多中国大妈漂洋过海跑到多伦多、悉尼、南加州炒高房价,让当地的年轻人义愤填膺却又无可奈何。不过,投资海外房地产确实是资产配置的一种好方法。毕竟相比于股票,房子是实实在在的“实物”,让人心理上感到更加安全。同时很多海外留学生的家庭会为其在学校周边买一套房子,可以以房养学、以租养贷,或者出国度假旅游时可以自住,相比于股票具有一定的衍生价值。

但是,房地产投资门槛很高。美股市场你可以只交易一股,但是房地产市场你不可能只交易一块砖。动辄上百万的房子,对于低净值的交易者来说不是十分友好。而且,国外的房地产是完全市场化的,绝对不是国内“房价永远涨”的逻辑,房价一旦跌起来甚至比股票还凶猛。这时,由于房地产的流动性又较差,在市况差的时候更难出手,更不可能像操作股票那样高抛低吸、来回做T。这就造成了进入房地产的时机一旦错误,很有可能缺乏对手盘,形成“闷杀”。投资者要么捂房不售,等待其漫长的复苏过程,亏损以年为单位的时间损耗;要么忍痛割肉,损失惨重。

正是由于高门槛、风险高、流动性差等特点,海外房地产投资不适合我们一般的散户。那么是不是我们散户只能眼睁睁的看着美国的房地产上涨、看着那些“大户”赚的盆满钵满,而我们只能在一旁扼腕叹息呢?答案当然是否定的,不然美股市场还怎么叫全球最发达的资本市场呢?肯定是有相关产品的,这个产品还是ETF。

我们都知道,房子不是证券,很多东西都不是证券。但是,金融头脑高度发达的美国人和华尔街,恨不得将所有的东西都证券化,以方便人们交易,REITs便是将房地产证券化的产品。REITs就是Real Estate Investment Trusts,是将一级市场的房产实体交易进行打包,转化为二级市场的证券交易,这样一下子就把房地产投资的三大缺点全部解决了。因为是ETF,所以可以当做普通股票交易,而且还可以只交易一股,几十美元就可以投资房地产市场;其二,因为REITs投资的是多个地区甚至是多个国家的多套房产,所以风险被很大的分散了;最后就是房地产变成了ETF的形式,所以不用再担心任何流动性上的问题。另外,REITs一般都投资商业地产,除了可以收获房地产增值带来的内在价值增值外,还能带来租金等经营性收入的衍生增值,并且还有分红。往往房价增速快的地方,商场和写字楼租金的增速也会大幅上升,于是还形成了“戴维斯双击”效应。

在所有的REITs中,首推一支明星ETF产品$不动产信托指数ETF-Vanguard(VNQ.US)$,它就是美股中的“REITs之王”,类似于港股中的“领展房产基金”,它挂钩的是MSCI美国REIT指数(前面已经说过,指数只是一种编制策略,所以房地产指数也有多种编制策略)。它投资酒店、旅馆、写字楼、工业、零售、住宅、多种经营等等房产形式,品种十分多元化。同时,REITs还伴有丰厚的分红,旱涝保收,非常适合风险厌恶型或者稳健性投资者。

房屋建筑

除了直接投资房地产外,我们还能考虑一些其他的标的和产品。如果一个地区的房地产市场很火爆,那么这个地区的装修、建材和建造行业也会随之火爆。北上广深道路两旁的中建三局的施工地,肯定要远远多于那些三四线城市。那么问题来了,前面既然有专门的REITs可以投资房地产,为什么还要舍本逐末去投资这些建筑和家装公司呢?当然还是收益率的问题。美国房地产虽然在次贷危机后开始复苏,但是其速度是远远赶不上股市的复苏速度。与我国房地产的增速一路突飞猛进、傲视群雄不同,在美国,股票的增值速度是最快的,房地产、债券、基金都是远远落后于股票收益的。因此,投资于包括房地产建筑商、家装产品商等公司股票在内的ETF,对美国房地产市场的复苏更为敏感,其收益也要远远高于普通的REITs。贝莱德发行的——$房屋建筑指数ETF-iShares Dow Jones(ITB.US)$,就是一款非常不错的投资房屋建筑公司的ETF。

好了,讲到这里,已经接近尾声了。故事是讲完了,但是我们的环球投资之旅才刚刚开始。其实不仅仅是美股市场,我国的A股市场同样有很多ETF产品,可以进行部分市场的配置。A股市场本身当然可以进行全方位配置,同时通过$标普500(513500.SH)$、$纳指ETF(513100.SH)$可以进行美股市场的配置,通过$恒生ETF(159920.SZ)$进行港股市场的配置,通过$德国30(513030.SH)$进行德国市场的配置,以及通过前不久刚刚完成中日ETF互通而发行的$日经ETF(513520.SH)$进行日本市场的配置。产品有很多,就看我们能不能加以高效利用。

最后,感谢牛牛提供牛牛圈这样一个优秀的交流平台,以及组织“投资ETF有奖征集”这么有意义的活动,也要感谢@牛牛大学-班主任。每次阅读牛牛圈和ETF知识的专栏,我都收益匪浅。我不是大佬,股市也没有什么大佬。在这里只是分享一点微不足道的经验,希望能与各位牛友共同学习、进步。

Robert Shiller – Destroyer of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)

Efficient market hypothesis states that the market price reflect all information available and consistent alpha generation is impossible.

Rober shiller demonstrates that short-term price movement is substantially driven by psychology and cannot be reasonablely justified by all availble public information.

Shiller's perspective can be illustrated by his definition of bubble:
"A situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increase and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about the real value of the investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of others’ successes and partly through a gambler’s excitement."

2019年6月随笔

  1. Crypto Currency as Fiat money

The value of crypto currency as fiat money is backed by the support and faith of Internet community, aka, computer prorgamers/developers/hackers.

  1. The zeal for hot spot stock often last as long as the media attention is sustained at a high level

  2. Zeal Stock
    Attributes
    1) Tech Related
    2) Consumers Product
    3) New in the Market
    4) High Growth Potentional

  3. Market Consensus About The Future Price Movement of a Stock
    (Crowd Behavior, Herd Effect)
    Guess the attitude and action of other investors as whole and act upon.

Simple hypothesis (First degree inference) of other investors: the most superficially good prospect stock will be popular, because the public is not so smart as a whole.

Although a large number (even most) of individual market participants (professional or not) think the superficailly good prospect stock is not indeed good, but since the investment community as a whole will like it, the best strategy is go along.

First degree inference is enough in most cases. (Optimal strategy)

Typicall, a downturn consensus is harder to reach than a upward consensus due to the difficulty to borrow, higher expense and risk in short selling compared to long buying, especially when no real bad news about the stock occurs.

  1. Central Bank Lower Interest Rate
    Lower interest expand money supply and credit, but also supports the overall debt growth in economy.

  2. Cash (Currency) and other financial assets are in substance the same in terms of purchasing power, they are essentially IOUs (Claim to goods and services).

  3. 利率调整作为发达国家货币政策的一种工具,为什么没有在国内频繁使用
    利率市场化和金融体系尚未完全开放,利率传导作用有限

  4. Public Comapny Separation
    Spin off

  5. Sfun

Marketing services are the primary source of revenues for Sofun in the year of 2018. Listing services are in substance another from of marketing services.
(58 Model)

CIH --> Commercial Property Service
SFUN --> Residential Property Service

  1. June 28, 2019
    Russle 1000 Index, Component Rebalance

  2. Tomson Server System Shutdown
    11:05:24

019-06-25 11:26:35] System.Reflection.TargetInvocationException: 操作过程中出现异常,结果无效。 有关异常的详细信息,请查看 InnerException。 ---> System.Net.WebException: 基础连接已经关闭: 发送时发生错误。 ---> System.IO.IOException: 由于远程方已关闭传输流,身份验证失败。
在 System.Net.TlsStream.EndWrite(IAsyncResult asyncResult)
在 System.Net.PooledStream.EndWrite(IAsyncResult asyncResult)
在 System.Net.ConnectStream.WriteHeadersCallback(IAsyncResult ar)
--- 内部异常堆栈跟踪的结尾 ---
在 System.Net.HttpWebRequest.EndGetResponse(IAsyncResult asyncResult)
在 System.Net.WebClient.GetWebResponse(WebRequest request, IAsyncResult result)
在 System.Net.WebClient.DownloadBitsResponseCallback(IAsyncResult result)
--- 内部异常堆栈跟踪的结尾 ---
在 System.ComponentModel.AsyncCompletedEventArgs.RaiseExceptionIfNecessary()
在 Shadowsocks.Controller.UpdateChecker.http_DownloadStringCompleted(Object sender, DownloadStringCompletedEventArgs e)

Irrational Exuberance读书笔记

The Characteristics of Financial Asset Bubble

Financial asset bubble is more like speculative epidemics

Speculative Bubble

Feedback loop of Bubble

The Position of Media in Speculative Bubble

Significant market events generally occur only if there is similar thinking among
large groups of people, and the news media are essential vehicles for the spread
of ideas

2019年5月随笔

Productivity and Cost Efficiency

The success of tech innovations depend largely on its improvement of productivity and cost efficiency.

Leverage and Short Selling

Invest on leverage has two major characteristics: (1) As an amplifier of both gain and loss
(2) The investor can be forced to close position due to the fluctuation of market price.

Short selling is considered as using leverage in trade since the margin requirement is 150% which includes the sells proceeds, thus the actual consideration paid is only 50% of sells proceeds. The leverage can be as high as 2 is the account have only 50% of equity of the security short sold.

Leverage is considered as using borrowed capital in trade, short selling involves borrowed securities, the proceeds of short selling can be considered as the borrowed capital. The cover of a short position can be thought of as returnning of borrowed capital at a reduced amount.

Ex-ante and Ex-post

Ex-ante = Before the fact
Ex-post = After the fact

Fundamental Principle of Optimal Forcast

The forecast error must be uncorrelated with the forecast

Fundamental Research and Market Research

Fundamental research focus on determine the fair valuation of the firm in long-term perspective.
Market research is intended to evaluate the short and mid term overall stock supply and demand.

5月关注列表

  1. 百度(BIDI)
    关注理由,中美贸易战引发的中概股大跌,股价走弱,虽然中国经济随贸易战承压但公司盈利基本面并没有明显变化,随着2018年年报发布时间的邻近,在爱奇艺年报超出预期的情况下,在155价位的百度股票有中长期上升空间。在155 - 160价位区间可以考虑买入。

Methodologies

套利、市场热点发掘、短线交易

Short Term Market Sentiment

Short term market sentiment cannot be guarranteed to extend into mid term market sentiment.
Thus the profit should be protected by placing profit taking order no higher than a 5% gain.
Also, the potentional loss should be stopped by placing a stop loss order in case the short term market sentiment is not fully realized as market price or performed at all.

The source of gain comes from uptick orders triggered by short term market sentiment.

When the inflation rate is high as well as general stock price level, the real return is overestimated because of the same high interest rate.

中概股信息

智氪研究

VIX index

VIX指数实际上反映了市场观点的分歧程度

WWR Research Note

  1. The company acquired Turkey graphite mineral resources in 2015, but did not generate any revenue until the license was terminated in 2018, why is that.

英国退欧

  1. 英方的核心诉求在于享受欧盟权利却不履行欧盟成员国义务,这在欧盟看来是对其核心利益和秩序的侵犯,不可退让。 同时由于公投导致的退欧使得英方在谈判上的底线已然确定,直接导致了英国在谈判中的弱势地位。

经营现金流为负的公司

主导股价的主要是趋势影响而不是价值,负经营现金流使得盈利预测难以实现

Westwater Resources

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/other-areas/office-of-technology-evaluation-ote/section-232-investigations

CENTENNIAL, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR), an energy metals exploration and development company, commented on the recently completed Section 232 Investigation of Uranium Imports. President Trump now has up to 90 days from April 14 to decide whether to act on the matter, which can include quotas or tariffs, a timeline which concludes in mid-July.

The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a Section 232 investigation in July 2018 to determine whether the present quantity of uranium ore and product imports threaten to impair U.S. national security. U.S. uranium production has declined significantly since 1987, with domestic uranium producers experiencing a major slowdown in operations and employment.

Christopher M. Jones, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We believe that, regardless of the decision that will be made by the President, U.S. producers will benefit in the near term. The U.S. utility companies are expected to come back to the market and stock-up on fuel supplies even if the President decides to deny the petition. In the event that the decision is in favor of the Section 232 action, U.S. producers will see greater demand for domestically produced uranium. Either way, we expect the price of uranium produced in the United States to rise.

“The U.S. relies heavily on nuclear power for carbon free base load power. According to UxC, more than 20% of all uranium produced in the world is consumed in the U.S. Nuclear power represents the only electrical base load solution for global electric power growth driven by economic expansion and a focus on carbon reduction.

“Uranium remains a key strategic focus for Westwater. Westwater Resources controls extensive mineral holdings in New Mexico and Texas. In addition, WWR owns the Rosita and Kingsville Dome processing facilities in Texas, both of which are licensed for production,” concluded Mr. Jones.

Short-term and Long-term Stock Selectivity

Short-term: Timing > Pricing
Long-term: Pricing > Timing

Sohu, Cyou and Sogou

Sohu 2018 Annual Report

  1. Brand advertising segment gross margin was 20% for 2018, compared to negative 16% and 17%, respectively, for 2017 and 2016.

Notes: The imporvement was mainly attributable to a decrease in video content costs and impairment charges compared to 2017.
The operation is sohu video is approaching profitable under the current trend as stated by the 2018 annual report.
However, the revenue drops accompanied with cost cut is significant. It is expected that sohu video will drop to a revenue level the same with sohu website advertising, and loss its position as the company's future revenue driving force.

  1. The search and search-related advertising gross margin was 35% for 2018, compared to 48% and 51%, respectively, for 2017 and 2016. The decrease in our search and search-related advertising gross margin for 2018 was mainly due to higher traffic acquisition costs as a percentage of search and search-related advertising revenues

Notes: The traffic acquisition cost surges along with the growth of revenue, which is a negative signal. Actually, the cost of revenue increased faster than ad revenue.

2011-2019 RS_T1 BackTest Short Loss Stocks

2011

  1. IDCC
    InterDigital Wireless Inc
    Business: Wireless Patent monetization

Time Period: 2011-7-20 to 2011-8-10
Price: 67.79 to 68.84

Patent portfolio interested by Google, Apple, etc. The time period is in the middle of communication patent (4G) hikes.

2013

  1. YRCW
    YRC Worldwide Inc
    Business: Transportation

Time Period: 2013-5-6 to 2013-5-28
Price: 15.48 to 19.5

Proposed merger with another freight company got rejected, unclear why the stock price hike in this period.

2015

  1. TRVN
    Trevena Inc
    Business: Drug R&D

Time Period: 2015-9-2 to 2015-9-24
Price: 11.44 to 12.44

Biopharmaceutical Uncertainty

  1. WW
    Weight Watchers International, Inc
    Business: Personal Services (Weight Loss Training)
    Time Period: 2015-10-20 to 2015-11-10
    Price: 18.25 to 22.53

Oprah Winfrey announced her investment into the company.

  1. CSTM
    Constellium N.V.
    Business: Aluminium production
    Time Period: 2015-11-6 to 2015-11-30
    Price: 8.19 to 8.77

Cause of Price Hiking in the time period mentioned above: unknown

  1. LXU
    Lsb Industries Inc
    Business: Chemical manufacturing
    Time Period: 2016-3-2 to 2016-3-23
    Price: 9.19 to 12.27

Cause of Price Hiking in the time period mentioned above: unknown

  1. BXC
    BlueLinx Holdings
    Business: Building material wholesaling
    Time Period: 2018-3-13 to 2018-4-4
    Price: 34.04 to 34.14

Price hide due to merger with another building material wholesaler, expecting increased operation efficiency and related cost-saving effect.

  1. AGMH
    AGM Group Holdings Inc
    Business: Finance Technology (Chinese Company)
    Time Period: 2018-6-13 to 2018-7-5
    Price: 16.21 to 21.32

Merger news, possible 炒作 by Chinese investors

  1. HEAR
    Turtle Beach
    Business: Consumer Electronics
    Time Period: 2018-5-11 to 2018-6-4
    Price: 16.03 to 17.84

Battle Royale gaming trending brought increasing demand for headset from new players.

  1. GRVY
    Gravity Co., LTD
    Business: online gaming
    Time Period: 2017-1-19 to 2017-2-9
    Price: 20.60 to 21.21

大陆授权手游: 仙境传说(永恒守护的爱)开启beta测试

Reading Notes

Bank Management (Peter S Rose)

The asset weight of commerical banks among financial service providers declined from 66% to 25% in a century.

2019年4月随笔

汽车制造业

汽车制造业为重资产行业,互联网打法不占优势

Why Drawdown Can Not Be Avoided

Drawdown is nearly impossible to avoid for a number of reasons.

First, both macro and micro economy systems has inherent cycles, including security market, where price got pushed up by up-tick buying forces for a variety reasons and drove down by subsequent asset monetization encouraged by price rise.

Second, we all frequently make mistakes when trading, either in stock pick or timing. The reality that we cannot realiably predict both market and specific stock movement makes drawdown normal.

Credit

Credit can be divided into two broard categories:
1. The credit of currency (The goodfath of government monetary authority)
2. A claim on currency

CHGG

The future profitability of CHGG lies on the R&D and monetization of technology driven online learning system. Current valuation level can be justified by evolutinoal educations solution, which remains unclear in both product design and market reaction.

First Order Consequence

The most direct consequence
Second Order Consequence : The most indirect consequence. Which is the consequence that is result as the first order consequence. Thus, a cause-and-effect chain.

盘内交易

前一个交易日拉升,第二个交易日散户入场抬高股价,主力缓慢退出获利,主力退出速度不能太快,防止股价暴跌,导致没有买盘。
开盘后2小时交易量高涨,后续交易量逐渐放缓。

大涨时交易量放大,股价抬升,缓跌时交易量缩小,交易节奏放缓。

做投资要有想象力

投资是反人性的

Thoughts

Both Chinese and U.S. stock market can be followed, but only short U.S. general stocks, and long/short for U.S. non Chinese company stocks.

Trading strategies for China market should be niche position, advance position in potentional niche industry sector stocks. Niche finding can be localised in China, or from niche in the U.S. market.

Trading strategies for U.S. market should be short selling following various signals, reports plus self-analysis result.

For China company stock in U.S. market, cutting edge can be possibly obtained from information advantage.

For U.S. market, buying IPO hot stock and dump at the end of IPO day may be a viable strategy, since U.S IPO has no stock subscription limit.

WorkOut Deal的成立条件

  1. 有价值洼地
  2. 有可预测的股东行动

Price Impact of Follow-on Offering

If the offering price is higher than the market, the market price will be pull up.
If the offering price is lower than the market, the market price will decline due to the possible short sell arbitrage oppertunity to thoes who receive stocker in the offering.

价值投资对市场未来走势预测的态度

做出走势的大致判断,但不依赖该判断

关于投资工具

中国券商投资工具在交互体验和易用性上大幅领先美国市场同行,源于中国软件免费,市场信息免费的商业氛围,相比之下美国券商的市场信息和投资工具获取门槛更高,交互体验更弱。

美国银行股的跳涨

说明了我个人的判断与美国最新的市场共识接近, 开盘未公告财报的银行股也普涨,说明BOA和JPM财报公布提升了市场对整体银行板块的盈利期望。

关于交易量和股价走势的关系

交易量下降通常伴随着股价下行

April and May Goal

Double $ 200 in day trading Chinese Concept Stocks. When value declined below $ 100, declared failure and start over with reflections.

Money Market Fund

A股打新策略
美股A股票热点迁移策略

short 30 shares of CLWT

低吸高抛的短期投机,不能以基本面为由而不及时止损抛出。

根据信息进行报价,不被大盘主导

股价变化动量在达到市场期望价格前只会被新的消息影响,新的消息包括其他其他市场参与者的仓位变化

Trend following, in a short term trend, the probability of trend continuing in the next day is larger than discontinue.

追求潜在热门题材但不追次要股,同时,作为投机型交易,股价走势与预期相反时不及时抛出,导致了被套浮亏,要及时止损

纵然投入量少,被套的损失有限,但从仓位角度来看被套就意味着失去后续交易机会,绝对金额的小并不影响投机认赔快进快出的原则

想法没有用实盘收益验证过前,贸然全仓压入,意图博取超额收益,不明智。

总金额的多寡不影响投资或投机中的风控原则

任何单一标的投资,半仓都是极限

净资产高于市值的公司机会

The dynamic of stock price burst for small cap companies.

News incentive attracts speculators buys in bulks of stock, which pulls up stock price and attracts community attention, primarily individuals investors from Chinese mainland and Hongkong. The speculators then slowly close their position, sell stocks to late entry individuals. The stock price would not dramatically fall after the main players close their positions. Rather, it would slowly going upward flueculy. This happens because late entry individuals are expecting further price growth. The dynamic continues in the same pattern until price is bid to a unsustainable level, leading to a irreversible slipping.

1/5仓位低点买入当日暴涨中概股,股价上升20%后抛出,附加market on close order

不能被想赚情绪左右交易决策

加强关注股的财报发布时间节点

follow company constantly to search for trading opportunities

The purpose of equity and market research is to find great trading timings.

IPO Subscription

IPO subscription requires to buy at least 1000 shares.

The cause of IPO failure

The greedy of private investor and underwriters together with lack of public interest is the cause of IPO failure.

Pinterest Trading Guide

  1. 90% gain target if trading is hot = $ 36.1
  2. 30% gain target if not so hot = $ 24.7

The margin of safty of Trend Follow Speculation can be improved

The momentum of trend realization is longer than expected by inspection of recent trading activities

Dalio's 5-step Process

  1. Have clear goals
  2. Identify and don't tolerate the problems that stand in the way of your achieving those goals
  3. Accurately diagnose the problems to get at their root causes
  4. Design plans that will get you around them
  5. Do what's necessary to push these designs through to results

Inflation

An increase in inflation rate reflects growth of demand is faster than the growth of supply.

Increase in inflation indicates a higher economic activity.
Inflation rate also influence the inflation expection of market participants, a mildly growth inflation means the general price level will grow, which leads to the cost of revenue. The market participants are more willing to spend and invest under the expection of future inflation due to its impairement effect on buying power. This is partially to boost future economic return.